NEW YORK, January 3, 2026, 13:33 ET — Market closed
- U.S. President Donald Trump said U.S. forces struck Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro in an overnight operation.
- Energy and defense shares led Friday’s tape ahead of the weekend, with oil supply headlines set to drive Monday’s open.
- Friday’s U.S. jobs report for December is due Jan. 9, a key test for rate-cut expectations.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that U.S. forces attacked Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro, a shock development that sets up a headline-driven week for markets when U.S. trading resumes on Monday. 1
For investors, the immediate question is whether the operation tightens near-term crude supply or speeds a longer-run shift in Venezuela’s oil sector. Venezuela sits on some of the world’s largest oil reserves, and Washington’s policy stance has already been a central variable for how much of that crude reaches the water. 1
U.S. stocks are shut for the weekend, but positioning going into Friday’s close leaned toward cyclical and “real assets” exposure: the iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE) ended Friday up about 2.1%, while the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) rose about 3.3%.
In the energy complex, Exxon Mobil (XOM) finished Friday at $122.65, up about 1.9%, while Chevron (CVX) ended at $155.90, up about 2.3%. ConocoPhillips (COP) closed at $96.70, up about 3.3%, and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) ended at $42.38, up about 3.1%.
The oil-market hinge is export flow. Two people with knowledge of PDVSA operations told Reuters that state-run oil production and refining were operating normally on Saturday and suffered no damage from the U.S. strike, though one source said the port of La Guaira near Caracas suffered severe damage. 2
Still, supply risk has been rising for weeks. Trump in December announced a blockade of oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela and the U.S. seized two Venezuelan oil cargoes, which Reuters reported helped cut exports last month to about half of the 950,000 barrels per day (bpd) shipped in November. 2
Chevron has been the exception on exports. Maduro said in a New Year’s interview aired on state television that Venezuela was willing to receive U.S. investment “like those of Chevron,” and Reuters reported that Chevron has continued to export under a U.S. license even as sanctions and tanker seizures halved Venezuela’s normal export rate. 3
Oilfield services names that tend to trade with expectations for higher drilling and infrastructure spending also outperformed on Friday. SLB (SLB) ended at $40.20, up about 4.8%, while Halliburton (HAL) closed at $29.60, up about 4.7%, and Baker Hughes (BKR) ended at $47.14, up about 3.5%.
Defense contractors, another standard geopolitical hedge, also ended higher into the weekend. Lockheed Martin (LMT) closed at $497.07, up about 2.8%, RTX (RTX) finished at $187.25, up about 2.1%, and Northrop Grumman (NOC) ended at $585.66, up about 2.7%.
Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, said: “From an investing perspective, this could unlock massive quantities of oil reserves over time.” 4
The near-term path is less clean. A sustained jump in crude would usually support producers and services while pressuring fuel-heavy industries; a fast de-escalation or a policy pivot that markets read as adding supply can unwind that trade quickly.
Before Monday’s open, traders will be watching for clearer detail on how Washington intends to “run” Venezuela and what it means for sanctions and tanker enforcement. Trump said the United States would oversee Venezuela “until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition,” but he did not provide specifics on the mechanics. 1
Next week also brings macro risk that can override single-country headlines. The Labor Department’s Employment Situation report for December is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, Jan. 9, and economists polled by Reuters expect payrolls to have risen by 55,000; the BLS calendar also shows the JOLTS job openings report due at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Jan. 7. 5
On the tape, technicians will focus on Friday’s ranges as near-term markers: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded between $679.86 and $686.82 and closed at $683.17. IYE traded between $47.33 and $48.68, while ITA ranged from $213.72 to $222.21.
