NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 08:47 ET — Market closed
Valero Energy Corp (VLO) shares are on watch for Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump’s strike in Venezuela paralyzed the country’s oil exports, with no tankers loading at the main port of Jose, sources told Reuters. Valero closed up 1.5% on Friday at $165.31. 1
The disruption matters for Gulf Coast refiners because many plants were built to process heavy crude — the type Venezuela produces — into transport fuels. Any shift in those barrels can move the price of heavy crude relative to lighter oil, changing refiners’ feedstock costs. 2
That feeds into crack spreads, trader shorthand for the gap between crude costs and the price refiners get for fuels such as gasoline and diesel. A crude spike without a matching move in products can squeeze margins, even if demand holds up.
Two people with knowledge of PDVSA operations told Reuters that Venezuela’s oil production and refining were running normally and avoided damage from the attack. Trump had announced a blockade of oil tankers in December and the U.S. seized two cargoes of Venezuelan oil, Reuters reported. 3
OPEC+ kept output policy unchanged on Sunday and reaffirmed a pause in production hikes through March, with the group set to meet next on Feb. 1, Reuters reported. “Right now, oil markets are being driven less by supply–demand fundamentals and more by political uncertainty,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. 4
Oil has been hovering around $60-$61 a barrel and briefly traded above $62 in December when Washington tightened pressure on Venezuelan exports, Reuters reported. The weekend escalation lands on a market already primed for headline-driven swings. 5
Analysts told Reuters that any meaningful recovery in Venezuelan output would take years even if U.S. oil majors invest, citing degraded infrastructure, security concerns and uncertainty over contracts. Chevron currently exports about 150,000 barrels a day from Venezuela to the U.S. Gulf Coast, and any sustained reopening would eventually matter for complex refiners such as Valero. 6
Refining stocks ended the week stronger: Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 also closed higher on Friday, ahead of the weekend headlines.
But the immediate setup is two-sided. A prolonged export freeze that tightens heavy crude availability or lifts crude prices faster than gasoline and diesel can pressure crack spreads and turn the trade against refiners.
Valero’s next scheduled catalyst is earnings: the company will release fourth-quarter and full-year results on Jan. 29 before the market opens and host a conference call at 10 a.m. ET. Investors will listen for commentary on crude sourcing and margin conditions as the Venezuela situation evolves. 7
Technically, Valero ended Friday near $165, below its 52-week high of $185.62 and above a low of $99.00, according to MarketWatch data. 8
Trading resumes with key dates close at hand. Maduro is due to appear in a Manhattan court on Monday and the U.N. Security Council planned to meet the same day, events that could steer the next headlines for oil and the refiner trade when U.S. equities reopen on Monday, Jan. 5. 9
