NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 11:36 ET — Market closed
Exxon Mobil Corp shares will be in focus when U.S. markets reopen on Monday after President Donald Trump said American oil companies were ready to spend billions of dollars to revive Venezuela’s oil infrastructure following the capture and removal of President Nicolas Maduro. Chevron is the only U.S. major currently operating in Venezuela, while Exxon and ConocoPhillips exited after projects were nationalized nearly two decades ago. “There are still many questions that need to be answered about the state of the Venezuelan oil industry, but it is clear that it will take tens of billions of dollars to turn that industry around,” said Peter McNally, global head of sector analysts at Third Bridge.
That matters for Exxon because traders treat large oil producers as a proxy for geopolitical risk and the path of crude prices, especially in thin early-year trading. Analysts have warned any meaningful boost to Venezuelan output would likely take years and hinges on security, sanctions and a workable contract framework — limiting any near-term relief to global supply balances.
Oil supply expectations also shifted on Sunday when OPEC+ kept its output policy unchanged and reaffirmed a pause in planned production increases through March. OPEC+ — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies such as Russia — pumps about half the world’s oil and scheduled its next meeting for Feb. 1. 1
Crude prices ended the last U.S. session little changed. Brent futures settled down 10 cents at $60.75 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate — the U.S. benchmark — slipped 10 cents to $57.32. 2
Exxon shares last traded at $122.65, up 1.9% from Thursday’s close, after moving between $119.66 and $122.78 in the first session of 2026. Chevron gained 2.3%, ConocoPhillips rose 3.3% and BP’s U.S.-listed shares added 3.2%.
Company-specific catalysts are closer at hand. Exxon’s investor relations site flags a “4Q25 Earnings Considerations” 8-K after the close on Wednesday, Jan. 7. An 8-K is a current report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for material developments and updated financial information. 3
Wall Street is already sketching out fourth-quarter expectations. Analysts tracked by Barchart forecast adjusted earnings of about $1.63 a share for Exxon in the quarter, and an average price target around $132. 4
Investors will be watching the usual swing factors: what Exxon realized for crude and natural gas prices, and whether refinery and chemical margins held up into year-end. Those businesses can offset weakness in upstream profits when oil prices soften, but margins can compress quickly if demand slows.
Macro data could add another layer of volatility for energy shares. U.S. employment data is due on Jan. 9 and the consumer price index on Jan. 13, two releases investors use to gauge the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the outlook for economic activity. 5
But the biggest risk is that the Venezuela headlines translate into policy uncertainty without delivering barrels, while oversupply concerns keep crude pinned near recent lows. A renewed oil slide would refocus attention on how much cash Exxon can return through dividends and buybacks without leaning on its balance sheet.
For traders, the near-term technical picture is straightforward. Friday’s low near $120 is the first support area, while the $123 zone around the last session’s high is the next hurdle for the stock.
The next hard catalyst comes later this month. Earnings calendars on Investing.com list Jan. 30 as Exxon’s next report date, leaving oil prices and Washington’s Venezuela policy as the immediate drivers when trading resumes Monday. 6
