NEW YORK, January 4, 2026, 12:39 ET
Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA has asked some joint ventures to cut crude output as exports remain frozen after U.S. forces captured President Nicolas Maduro in a raid on Saturday, three people close to the decision said on Sunday. The move includes shutting oilfields or well clusters as onshore stocks rise and PDVSA runs short of diluents — light petroleum liquids used to thin extra-heavy crude so it can be shipped. 1
The export standstill matters because oil sales are Venezuela’s main source of hard-currency revenue, and storage fills quickly when tankers cannot sail. Port captains have not received requests to authorize loaded vessels to depart, sources close to operations said, and TankerTrackers.com reported no tankers loading at the main export hub of Jose. 2
Oil markets were already focused on oversupply and a weak price backdrop before the raid raised the stakes in Caracas. Brent crude futures — contracts that set a price for future delivery — settled at $60.75 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate ended at $57.32, as investors weighed geopolitical risks against expectations of ample supply. 3
PDVSA’s oil production and refining operations were running normally on Saturday and suffered no damage from the U.S. strike, two people with knowledge of the operations said. One source said the port of La Guaira near Caracas, which is not used for oil exports, sustained severe damage, while PDVSA’s administrative system has not fully recovered from a December cyberattack that forced the company to rely on written records. 4
President Donald Trump said after Maduro’s detention that major U.S. oil companies were prepared to spend billions to restore Venezuela’s output, while keeping an oil embargo in place for now. Chevron is the only U.S. major currently operating in Venezuela, and the company said it remained focused on employee safety and asset integrity as it continues to operate in compliance with U.S. rules; Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, among others, have long histories in the country after nationalizations under former President Hugo Chavez. 5
Even if Washington eases restrictions, analysts say the path to higher output runs through security, contracts and cash — not just rigs. “American firms won’t return until they know for sure they will be paid and will have at least a minimal amount of security,” said Mark Christian, director of business development at CHRIS Well Consulting. 6
Trade flows could shift faster than production if sanctions are lifted and buyers can insure and finance cargoes again. China accounted for more than half of Venezuela’s crude exports of 768,000 barrels per day last year, according to data from analytics firm Kpler, with much of that going to small independent Chinese refineries known as “teapots” that buy discounted barrels when sanctions are in force. 7
Global supply management is also in focus after OPEC+ kept oil output unchanged on Sunday and reaffirmed a pause on planned output increases for January through March, delegates said. The eight OPEC+ members will meet next on Feb. 1, the group said, as markets digest political crises touching several producers. 8
But the near-term market reaction may hinge less on reserves in the ground than on whether Venezuela’s transition stays orderly and whether exporters can move barrels without legal or security shocks. Investors are bracing for more “headline risk,” with strategists warning that security concerns, dilapidated infrastructure and questions around the raid’s legality could keep companies on the sidelines even if the longer-term prize looks large. 9
Traders are watching Monday’s court appearance in New York for Maduro, as well as a planned U.N. Security Council meeting on the U.S. attack, for signs of how far the dispute may spread. In the oil market, the next immediate test is operational: whether PDVSA resumes authorizations for loaded tankers at Jose and whether Washington clarifies how the embargo and Chevron’s limited license will be handled this week. 10
