NEW YORK, Jan 5, 2026, 08:22 ET
- Melius Research downgraded Uber, citing rising autonomous-vehicle competition.
- Investors are zeroing in on whether robotaxis scale fast enough to reshape ride-hailing economics this year.
- Bullish analysts argue Uber’s platform scale can keep it relevant even if fleets go driverless.
Uber Technologies shares were up about 1.4% in premarket trading on Monday. Melius Research cut the ride-hailing and delivery company’s rating to sell and set a $73 price target, below the stock’s last trade at $82.86. The firm cited rising competition from autonomous-vehicle, or AV, developers such as Tesla and Alphabet’s Waymo.
The call lands as investors start 2026 trying to pin down when robotaxis — self-driving taxis — move from pilots to scaled services. Uber’s model depends on the take rate, the percentage of gross bookings it keeps from each trip, and autonomy could reshape that split.
Uber has framed itself as a demand aggregator, meaning its app can funnel riders to autonomous fleets without owning the vehicles. That gives Uber a way to benefit if robotaxis lower fares and expand demand, but it also sets up a risk: the fleet owners may decide they don’t need a middleman.
A column on Yahoo Finance published within the past day also focused on Uber’s five-year outlook, underscoring how quickly investor attention has swung to autonomy as the biggest unknown for the stock.
A Motley Fool analysis published on Sunday pointed to Uber’s third-quarter 2025 results, with revenue and gross bookings up 20% and 21% year on year and trips rising 22% to 3.5 billion, while monthly active users reached 189 million. It cited CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah’s three-year outlook for a “high 30% to 40%” EBITDA compound annual growth rate; EBITDA is a common proxy for operating profit before interest, taxes and some non-cash costs. The analysis warned that Tesla and Waymo could expand their own apps and cut Uber out, even as many AV companies currently partner with the platform to scale faster. The Motley Fool
Uber’s scale gives it a network effect: more riders attract more drivers, which shortens wait times and pulls in more riders. In an AV world, the same logic could help autonomous fleets keep vehicles busy, improving utilization.
Bernstein analyst Nikhil Devnani reiterated a buy rating and raised his price target to $115 from $110, saying Uber’s valuation has been weighed down by media coverage of AV competition. Barchart said the average price target was $112.81, with a high forecast of $150.
A Seeking Alpha contributor on Jan. 2 also argued Uber is positioned for asset-light autonomy and valued the shares at $150, pointing to sustained growth, margin expansion and buybacks. Asset-light means relying on partners’ vehicles rather than owning a fleet.
MarketBeat said Uber shares rose 1.3% to $82.76 on Jan. 2 and put the consensus analyst target at about $108.82. The stock has been trading in the low $80s as the autonomy debate has intensified.
The robotaxi pivot remains the wild card. Regulatory approvals, insurance and liability rules, and the pace of technical improvement will shape how quickly autonomy moves beyond limited routes and weather conditions. A faster rollout could also trigger price wars if robotaxi operators subsidize rides to win market share.
