New York, Jan 5, 2026, 20:48 EST — Market closed
- COP closed up about 2.6% as energy stocks rallied on Venezuela headlines.
- J.P. Morgan analysts said ConocoPhillips’ outstanding Venezuela claims approach $10 billion.
- Traders are watching U.S. talks with oil executives later this week, plus API and EIA inventory data.
ConocoPhillips (COP) shares closed up about 2.6% on Monday at $99.20. Energy stocks rallied after President Donald Trump said Washington would keep an embargo on Venezuelan oil exports in place for now while his administration lined up talks later this week with oil executives on reviving output there — a project analysts say would take years and billions of dollars. 1
Investors are also revisiting the company’s Venezuela-related claims, rather than its near-term drilling prospects. J.P. Morgan analysts said ConocoPhillips has outstanding claims approaching $10 billion, and the stock rose more than 2% alongside Exxon Mobil, while Chevron ended 5% higher. “This type of crude aligns well with the configuration of U.S. Gulf Coast refineries,” said Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone. 2
Arbitration awards are legal judgments from international tribunals; collecting them often depends on negotiating a settlement or attaching assets. That makes policy signals — sanctions, contracts, and enforcement — as important as barrels in the ground for the near-term COP trade.
Crude prices ended higher after a volatile session. Brent settled up $1.01 at $61.76 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained $1 to $58.32 as traders weighed possible shifts in Venezuelan flows; OPEC+ — OPEC and allies including Russia — kept output policy unchanged. 3
U.S. inventory data is the next near-term macro test for oil prices. Analysts in a Reuters poll expect crude stockpiles rose by about 1.3 million barrels last week, ahead of American Petroleum Institute figures due Tuesday and the Energy Information Administration report on Wednesday. 4
ConocoPhillips traded between $97.11 and $102.98 on Monday, leaving the $100 level as the first psychological marker for traders into Tuesday. The company is scheduled to discuss fourth-quarter results on Feb. 5 at 12:00 p.m. Eastern. 5
With oil in the high-$50s to low-$60s, investors will be listening for how management frames spending discipline and cash returns, and whether it sees room to protect payouts if prices stay soft. Any incremental detail on Venezuela — timelines, legal avenues, or a settlement path — would add another variable to that outlook.
But the Venezuela trade is headline-driven and hard to model. A prolonged embargo, legal uncertainty and the scale of investment required to rebuild fields could leave little near-term upside beyond sentiment, especially in a market already wrestling with ample supply.
ConocoPhillips is one of the world’s largest independent oil and gas producers, and its share price often tracks shifts in crude expectations. That linkage makes Wednesday’s government inventory data and any fresh moves in Brent and WTI key inputs for positioning.
Investors will watch for readouts from the administration’s planned meetings later this week and for any shift in Venezuela-related policy language. For ConocoPhillips, the next company-specific checkpoint is its Feb. 5 earnings call.
