New York, January 6, 2026, 11:10 ET — Regular session
- Exxon shares fall about 1.4% in late morning trade, giving back part of Monday’s jump
- Venezuela headlines shift focus from “new barrels” to “more supply,” keeping oil near $60
- Investors watch Washington’s talks with oil executives and Exxon’s next SEC filing
Exxon Mobil Corp shares were down 1.4% at $123.63 on Tuesday, retreating from a surge a day earlier as traders reassessed what Washington’s Venezuela push could mean for oil supply and Big Oil’s returns. The stock opened at $125.40 and touched a session high of $126.11 before sliding toward $123.58.
The pullback comes as the oil market enters 2026 with a surplus expected by many forecasters, a setup that can cap crude prices and pressure cash flow at producers. A Reuters poll of 34 economists and analysts forecast Brent averaging $61.27 a barrel in 2026 and U.S. crude at $58.15, with Oxford Economics’ Bridget Payne saying supply is expected to exceed demand and keep prices “under pressure through the year.” 1
That backdrop has sharpened focus on Venezuela, where the Trump administration is now planning meetings with executives from U.S. oil companies later this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan production, according to a source familiar with the matter. The White House has said it believes U.S. industry is ready to move into Venezuela, while Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment. 2
Energy shares had rallied on Monday after Washington’s military action in Venezuela, pushing the S&P 500 energy index to its highest since March 2025. Exxon rose alongside peers in that move, as investors tried to price whether U.S. firms could regain access to the country’s vast reserves. 3
Crude prices were modestly higher on Tuesday, but the market’s debate has tilted toward how quickly new Venezuelan barrels could arrive into an already well-supplied system. Brent was up 0.7% at $62.22 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 0.7% at $58.73, while PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga said it was “obvious” oil supply will be sufficient in 2026, with or without more production from Venezuela. Rystad analyst Janiv Shah estimated about 300,000 barrels per day of extra supply in the next two to three years on limited incremental spending. 4
But Venezuela’s geology and politics complicate the trade. Much of its crude is heavy and costly to produce; Wood Mackenzie estimates breakeven costs for key Orinoco grades average above $80 a barrel, Reuters columnist Ron Bousso wrote, well above current oil prices. “The opportunity must be compelling enough to offset the substantial political risk that will persist,” said Carlos Bellorin, an analyst at Welligence Energy. 5
Among peers, Chevron was down 2.7% at $159.46, while ConocoPhillips was little changed at $99.22; the broad market was slightly higher, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF up 0.2%. The mixed tape underscored that Tuesday’s move in Exxon looked less like a sector-wide break and more like a reset after Monday’s headline-driven run.
Separately, a Form 4 filing showed Exxon director Angela F. Braly received 2,500 shares of common stock in a restricted stock grant dated Jan. 2, and reported 33,000 shares held directly after the transaction. Insider grants are common at large companies and are typically not read as a near-term trading signal. 6
Next up, Exxon’s investor relations site lists a “4Q25 Earnings Considerations 8-K” due on Wednesday, Jan. 7 after market hours — an SEC filing that can flag key factors affecting quarterly results before the full report. Traders will also watch for any concrete details from Washington’s meetings with oil executives and signs of where U.S. sanctions policy on Venezuela is headed.
