New York, January 7, 2026, 17:38 EST — After-hours
- Oracle shares down about 0.5% in extended trading.
- UBS strategist says a move to junk status is “probably quite unlikely,” despite heavy borrowing.
- Investors are watching debt, credit spreads and AI spending ahead of mid-March earnings and the Jan. 9 dividend record date.
Oracle (ORCL.N) shares edged lower in after-hours trading on Wednesday as investors weighed a UBS view that the software maker is unlikely to be cut to junk credit status despite a big debt load tied to its AI data-center buildout. The stock was down about 0.5% at $192.84.
The comments matter now because Oracle is leaning on borrowing to fund new capacity, and any hit to its investment-grade rating could lift interest costs when it is still spending heavily. “A downgrade to junk in the first-quarter is not our baseline and in fact is probably quite unlikely,” UBS strategist Matthew Mish said, adding credit-rating firms may stay “somewhat patient” even if the company slips toward the lowest investment-grade tier. Oracle has about $95 billion of debt outstanding, and investors have used credit default swaps — a form of insurance against default — to hedge rising credit risk, the report said. 1
Oracle’s financing has been under a sharper spotlight since December, when the company said fiscal 2026 spending would be $15 billion higher than its September estimate as it races to add AI-related capacity. It also missed Wall Street expectations for remaining performance obligations — a backlog measure that investors use to gauge future cloud revenue — and forecast third-quarter revenue growth below analysts’ estimates.
The debt debate sits alongside a tougher fight in cloud infrastructure. Oracle is trying to win more AI workloads from enterprise customers while competing with bigger rivals such as Amazon and Microsoft, and investors want clearer proof the extra capacity turns into steady subscription revenue, not just bigger interest bills.
Oracle also has a near-term calendar item for income investors. Its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.50 per share payable on Jan. 23 to shareholders of record as of Jan. 9, a filing showed.
Beyond that, the next earnings update is the main checkpoint. Oracle says its third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings will be announced in mid-March, setting up the next test of whether cloud demand and margins can keep pace with the spending and the debt. 2
But the downside case is straightforward: if AI demand cools or funding markets tighten, Oracle may need to borrow more at a higher cost, and rating pressure could return quickly. A cut toward the bottom rung of investment grade would leave less room for error.
Investors will watch for any fresh signals from credit markets and the rating agencies in the coming days, with the Jan. 9 dividend record date and Oracle’s mid-March earnings update as the next hard markers.
