Sydney, January 8, 2026, 17:37 AEDT — Market closed
- NAB rose 1% on Thursday after a sharp dip the previous session
- Rate bets stayed in focus after mixed inflation signals and RBA warnings
- Next catalysts include Jan. 28 CPI, Feb. 3 RBA decision and NAB’s Feb. 18 update
National Australia Bank Limited shares ended up 1.0% at A$41.10 on Thursday, after trading between A$40.72 and A$41.14. The stock was last up A$0.41 on the day and remains below its 52-week high. 1
The bounce comes as investors in Australian lenders try to work out whether the next move from the Reserve Bank of Australia is still up. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said inflation was “still too high”, and the central bank has warned rates may need to rise from 3.6% if price pressures persist.
On Wednesday, data showed the monthly CPI was unchanged in November and the annual pace slowed to 3.4%, while trimmed mean inflation — a core gauge that strips out the biggest price swings — eased to 3.2%. Investors still saw a 33% risk of a February hike; “3.2% being the magic number for trimmed mean inflation,” said Harry Murphy Cruise, head of economic research at Oxford Economics Australia. 2
NAB had slid 2.0% a day earlier as bank stocks weakened even as miners helped the broader market. Commonwealth Bank fell 1.68%, Westpac dropped 1.75% and ANZ declined, reflecting how quickly rate-sensitive financials can swing when inflation prints surprise. 3
The next company checkpoint is February 18, when NAB is scheduled to release its first-quarter trading update, its calendar shows. Traders will look for changes in net interest margin — the spread between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — along with any shift in bad-debt charges and costs. 4
On technical charts, NAB is hovering around its 50-day moving average near A$41.86, while the 200-day moving average sits around A$39.93, according to Barchart data. Those levels can matter when rates news drives fast, short-term flows into or out of the sector. 5
The risk is a renewed rate repricing if inflation runs hotter than expected. Australia’s statistics bureau is due to publish the December CPI on January 28 at 11:30 a.m. AEDT, and the RBA’s next policy decision is scheduled for February 3.
