NEW YORK, Jan 8, 2026, 03:08 EST — Market closed
- Shell warned its Chemicals and Products business is set to run below break-even in Q4 as margins and trading weaken
- The stock closed down in both New York and London ahead of the update-driven session
- Investors now turn to Feb. 5 results and the pace of buybacks into month-end
Shell Plc said its Chemicals and Products segment is expected to post adjusted earnings below break-even in the fourth quarter, as weaker chemicals margins and lower trading weigh, keeping the stock in focus ahead of the next session.
The timing matters. Investors use these quarterly outlook notes as a quick read on cash generation, trading performance and whether shareholder returns look secure before the full results land.
In New York, Shell’s ADRs (SHEL) closed down 1.9% at $71.54 on Wednesday. In London, Shell shares fell 3.3% to 26.56 pounds.
In its fourth-quarter update note, Shell forecast LNG liquefaction volumes of 7.5 million to 7.9 million tonnes, still within its earlier range, while pointing to softer conditions in downstream. Shell’s indicative refining margin is seen rising to $14 a barrel from $12 in the third quarter, but the indicative chemicals margin is seen sliding to $140 a tonne from $160; it also flagged significantly lower Trading & Optimisation in Chemicals and Products. Shell said “adjusted earnings” — its profit measure that strips out identified items and certain accounting effects — will also be shaped by items including around $1.5 billion of cash outflow tied to German emissions certificates and a typical roughly $1.2 billion payment of German mineral oil taxes. GlobeNewswire
The update follows two deal headlines that have kept Shell on traders’ screens this week. Shell agreed to buy a 35% interest in two undeveloped ultra-deepwater blocks offshore Angola from Chevron, and it also won Petrovietnam Gas’ first term LNG supply contract, delivering about 400,000 metric tons a year from 2027 to 2031 to Vietnam’s Thi Vai terminal.
Shell has also been active in its buyback programme. The company disclosed purchases for cancellation of 2,233,786 shares on Jan. 7 and 1,472,298 shares on Jan. 6 across London and Amsterdam venues, and said Merrill Lynch International will make trading decisions independently through Jan. 30 under the programme announced on Oct. 30.
The broader tape has been unhelpful for the sector. London’s energy stocks fell 3.3% on Wednesday as crude prices dipped on U.S.-Venezuela headlines, and U.S.-listed peers also ended lower, with Exxon down 2.1% and Chevron off 0.8%.
Technically, Shell’s ADR is sitting below its 52-week high of $77.47 and above the 52-week low of $58.54 — levels some traders use as a rough map for support and resistance when headlines hit outside market hours.
But the story can still break the other way. Trading results can swing fast quarter-to-quarter, and further moves in crude, refining margins or petrochemical spreads could change the earnings picture — and the cash flow bridge — by the time Shell reports.
