NEW YORK, Jan 9, 2026, 08:21 EST
- U.S. stock index futures were little changed going into the 8:30 a.m. ET jobs report, with traders also watching for a possible Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs.
- Economists see a modest pace of December hiring, with the unemployment rate dipping to 4.5%—keeping the Fed front and center heading into January.
- A ruling against the tariffs could open the door to refund claims, which importers and lawyers peg at around $150 billion.
U.S. stock index futures held mostly steady early Friday, with investors bracing for the December jobs report and a U.S. Supreme Court decision that could reshape President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. By 6:57 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were up 0.09% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.22%, while Dow futures were near flat. Intel rose after Trump said he met its CEO, and General Motors slipped after flagging a $6 billion charge tied to its EV business. 1
The double-header matters because it presses on both gears of the market’s pricing engine at the same time: growth and rates. A clear hiring signal could move bets on the Federal Reserve, while a tariff ruling could reshape corporate costs, trade flows and federal revenue.
The Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report — the monthly count of U.S. jobs excluding farm work — is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Reuters forecast a 60,000 rise in December payrolls and a dip in the unemployment rate to 4.5% from 4.6%, with average hourly earnings seen up 3.6% from a year earlier; Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said businesses have been “very cautious” about adding workers as they weigh tariffs and automation. 2
The tariff fight now at the Supreme Court hinges on Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 law meant for national emergencies. Reuters has reported the administration leaned on the statute to roll out “reciprocal” tariffs on imports from nearly every major trading partner, along with separate levies on China, Canada and Mexico tied to fentanyl trafficking claims. Those moves have drawn challenges from businesses and a dozen U.S. states. 3
Investors say the court could hit markets with a jolt in either direction, and some are lining up for a bounce in rate-sensitive and import-heavy corners if tariffs are rolled back. “We’ve never seen a ruling that has such an economic impact,” Eddie Ghabour, chief executive at Key Advisors Wealth Management, said, warning refunds could drain liquidity; John Velis, head of Americas macro strategy at BNY Markets, said retail, consumer goods and electronics would likely be among the early beneficiaries if levies are unwound. 4
Importers are already mapping out how a refund fight might play out if the tariffs are struck down. Reuters reported that Trump’s IEEPA-related duties brought in an estimated $133.5 billion in collections between Feb. 4 and Dec. 14, with the total now approaching $150 billion; Jim Estill, CEO of Danby Appliances, said getting money back would be “a dog’s breakfast,” while Flexport’s Angela Lewis said a shift by U.S. Customs and Border Protection to electronic refund distribution could help if the court orders repayments. 5
The White House has been playing down the risk to the revenue stream, while still conceding the leverage problem. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he was confident the administration could keep collecting tariffs under other legal authorities, but cautioned that losing the emergency tool would crimp Trump’s flexibility: “What is not in doubt is our ability to continue collecting tariffs… What is in doubt… was the president loses flexibility,” he said. 6
Thursday’s cash session offered a preview of the same tug-of-war on Friday’s calendar. The Dow climbed 270.03 points to 49,266.11. The S&P 500 was basically flat, edging up 0.53 points to 6,921.46, while the Nasdaq slid 104.26 points to 23,480.02 as defense contractors jumped and big tech lagged. 7
But it’s not a clean path: the court could uphold the tariffs outright, pare back any remedy, or leave refund mechanics stuck in lower courts and bureaucracy. And one surprise in the jobs figures can whip Treasury yields — the interest rate on U.S. government bonds — and reprice rate-cut bets in minutes.
For traders, it’s a tight window and a long menu of ways it can go sideways, with the jobs print hitting first and the tariff ruling hovering over the rest of the day.
