NEW YORK, Jan 11, 2026, 06:07 (EST) — Market closed.
- Tesla shares closed Friday 2.1% higher, bouncing back from a volatile session.
- Investors juggle rate-cut expectations while navigating a rapidly evolving self-driving technology race
- Upcoming events: U.S. CPI data drops Jan. 13, Tesla reports earnings Jan. 28
Tesla (TSLA) shares gained 2.1% on Friday, ending the day at $445.01. The stock swung between a low of $430.39 and a high of $449.05 during the session. U.S. markets will be closed Sunday, with trading resuming Monday. (Yahoo Finance)
Two main factors are driving the action: interest rates and autonomy. Tesla behaves like a long-duration growth stock, meaning even slight changes in risk appetite can quickly impact its price.
The U.S. jobs report on Friday came in softer than expected, fueling bets on future rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 50,000 in December, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4%. Traders are now factoring in roughly 54 basis points of easing in 2026 — with each basis point equaling 0.01 percentage point. (Reuters)
Autonomy headlines aren’t going anywhere. Investors remain bullish on driver-assistance software and robotaxis as game-changers for the company, yet this narrative also fuels competitors to step up their efforts.
At CES in Las Vegas, Nvidia teamed up with auto suppliers to launch partnerships focused on slashing the cost and time needed for self-driving tech development. Tesla and Alphabet’s Waymo, meanwhile, continue advancing their proprietary systems. Amazon Web Services exec Ozgur Tohumcu called generative AI a “big accelerant,” while Infineon CEO Jochen Hanebeck cautioned against “market fantasy,” saying he doesn’t foresee a “tsunami” toward Level 5 autonomy—fully driverless cars. Morgan Stanley analysts noted Nvidia’s open platform could intensify competition against Tesla, though they still rank Tesla years ahead. (Reuters)
Policy remained a factor. California Governor Gavin Newsom put forward $200 million in new state EV rebates following Congress’s decision to end the $7,500 federal EV tax credit. Regulators, however, have not yet determined the exact rebate amount per vehicle. (Reuters)
There’s a risk on the horizon. Should inflation stay stubbornly high, pushing yields up and delaying the timeline for autonomy, Tesla’s valuation could contract sharply — and its stock usually reacts ahead of the broader market.
Tuesday brings the next near-term catalyst: the Labor Department’s December consumer price index (CPI) report, set for 8:30 a.m. ET. Any surprise in inflation data will probably jolt Treasury yields right away, with high-growth stocks like Tesla following soon after. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Tesla plans to release its fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday, Jan. 28. The company will follow up with a Q&A webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET, management confirmed. Investors are eyeing potential shifts in pricing and margins, alongside any updates on how fast Tesla expects to monetize its autonomy efforts. (Tesla)
