New York, Jan 11, 2026, 12:31 EST — Market closed.
- EQT trailed behind the wider U.S. stock rally Friday, weighed down by persistent weakness in natural gas prices
- Traders stayed fixated on demand, storage, and LNG flows as mild weather forecasts combined with ample supply weighed on the market.
- The upcoming pivot hinges on the latest late-January weather models and Thursday’s U.S. storage report
EQT Corp shares dropped 2.1% on Friday, closing at $51.09, lagging behind a broader U.S. rally. The S&P 500 gained 0.65%, while the Dow rose 0.48%. The market will be closed Sunday ahead of Monday’s reopening. 1
This is crucial since EQT trades on the strip, not the front-month price. When Henry Hub eases up, the cash flow calculations for gas producers shift fast—and this month, weather models have carried the bulk of the load.
U.S. natural gas futures dropped roughly 2% to hit an 11-week low on Friday, with the front-month February contract falling 7 cents to $3.337 per mmBtu, Reuters reported. LSEG data showed average Lower 48 production at 109.2 bcfd so far this January, while feedgas flows to major U.S. LNG export terminals hovered near 18.5 bcfd. Forecasts continued to favor mild conditions through Jan. 24, except for a colder spell around Jan. 18-19. The spread between February and March contracts widened to 70 cents, and the March-April “widow-maker” spread remained slightly negative, indicating traders don’t expect a late-winter storage crunch. 2
Other gas-heavy producers followed suit heading into the weekend. Range Resources dropped roughly 1.3%, ending at $33.45, while Antero Resources slipped around 2.5% to close at $31.38 on Friday.
Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics noted that an “increasing consensus” is emerging for a “chilly back half of January,” despite some softening in near-term demand. He also warned that a larger storage surplus might continue to pressure prices beyond winter. 3
The setup heading into Monday is anything but straightforward. Near-term warmth cuts into heating demand, yet the market clings to every late-January update. Add in LNG export demand, and the supply-demand balance feels tighter than the mild weather suggests.
The curve tells its own tale. If the front month trades significantly above the following contract, it signals the market expects prices to drop as contracts roll over. This expectation often seeps directly into how investors value producers who haven’t hedged their exposure.
Forecasts can flip—and quickly. A sudden cold snap that hits demand could send futures surging and boost gas-linked stocks. Yet if the warm trend holds and production edges up again, the downside risks remain very much alive.
Traders will eye Monday’s updated temperature forecasts for clues, looking to see if the Henry Hub selloff is losing steam. The March-April spread remains volatile, as the market tracks that for signs of end-of-winter risk.
Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly storage report, set for Jan. 15 at 10:30 a.m. ET, will be the next major catalyst. This release often shakes up prices, even when the weather is calm. 4
