New York, January 12, 2026, 09:55 EST — Regular session
Moderna (MRNA.O) shares dropped about 2% to $33.60 early Monday after the biotech forecasted around $1.9 billion in revenue for 2025 and lowered its GAAP operating-expense forecast for that year—the U.S. accounting standard. The stock swung between $35.77 and $33.33 in a volatile session. 1
This update is crucial as Moderna strives to reassure investors it can sustain itself on seasonal vaccine revenues and an expanding pipeline, rather than relying on pandemic-era demand. Traders are fixated on cash levels and how quickly the company is cutting expenses.
The timing coincides with the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, a key moment when health-care firms lay out their strategies and investors gauge who’s trimming costs quickest and who’s lagging. The event is scheduled for Jan. 12-15. 2
Moderna’s CFO James Mock told Reuters that U.S. retail vaccination rates dropped roughly 26% year-on-year in 2025, which is at the lower boundary of the company’s forecasted decline, boosting sales. “If we’re at $1.9 billion for 2025, up to 10% would be $2.1 billion,” Mock said, referring to Moderna’s 2026 growth target, though he stressed it’s not an official guidance. The company’s revenue soared to $18.4 billion in 2022 amid the COVID vaccine surge. 3
Moderna projects ending 2025 with roughly $8.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, according to a recent filing. This total factors in a planned $600 million draw from a five-year, $1.5 billion term loan facility. CEO Stéphane Bancel highlighted a $2 billion cut in annual operating expenses for 2025. The company also outlined a trajectory toward “cash breakeven” by 2028, when cash inflows are expected to match outflows. GAAP operating expenses are forecasted at about $4.9 billion in 2026, dropping to between $4.2 billion and $4.6 billion in 2027. 4
Moderna is pushing to expand in already packed seasonal markets. Competitors with larger commercial reach already have flu and RSV vaccines on the shelves. Combination products offer a path to protect market share as standalone COVID demand continues to fade.
The early drop indicates investors remain unsure about the timing. While cost cuts offer some relief, the market usually penalizes even the hint that approvals or late-stage readouts might be delayed.
The road ahead isn’t smooth. Vaccine uptake might drop quicker than anticipated, regulators could tighten deadlines on flu and combination shots, and any slip in clinical data for cancer, norovirus, or rare diseases would put Moderna’s spending strategy and 2026 growth outlook under pressure.
Moderna’s conference presentation kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET. Investors will be zeroing in on guidance for 2026 revenue, cost control measures, and updates to the approval timeline. 5
