NEW YORK, Jan 12, 2026, 12:27 (EST) — Regular session
- Rivian shares up about 0.5% midday after Wolfe cuts rating to Underperform, sets $16 target
- Wolfe flags higher 2026 cash burn as spending rises ahead of the R2 launch window
- Investors look to Feb. 12 results for 2026 guidance on demand, margins and liquidity
Rivian Automotive (RIVN.O) shares rose about 0.5% to $19.31 on Monday, paring an early dip, after Wolfe Research cut its rating to Underperform and set a $16 price target. Wolfe said free cash flow — cash left after spending on operations and investment — could run around $4 billion or more in 2026 and projected a $2.1 billion EBITDA loss, a common measure of operating performance. 1
Investors have been betting that Rivian’s push into software and driver-assistance can widen the story beyond truck and SUV sales. The downgrade is a reminder that, for now, the stock still trades on cash burn and the cost of getting the next vehicle out the door.
Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, down about 18% from a year earlier, as higher-priced EV demand cooled after a $7,500 U.S. consumer tax credit expired at the end of September. Management has said it aims to start delivering the smaller, lower-priced R2 SUV in the first half of 2026, a model investors see as its first real bid for scale. 2
Analyst Emmanuel Rosner called the coming months a “catalyst vacuum” for Rivian’s autonomy push, with meaningful benefits from subscriptions pushed to late 2026, Barron’s reported. He said Tesla should keep a steadier “drumbeat” of AI headlines, leaving Rivian short of near-term triggers. 3
Rivian touched $18.50 in the morning before turning higher, trading near its session high by midday. Volume was heavy for this time of day.
Tesla shares were up about 2% and Lucid rose about 1%, offering a mild tailwind to EV names even as analysts picked at Rivian’s balance-sheet math.
Rivian has said it produced 10,974 vehicles and delivered 9,745 in the fourth quarter, and that full-year 2025 production and deliveries were broadly in line with its own expectations. The company is due to report fourth-quarter and full-year results on Feb. 12 after the close and hold a webcast at 5 p.m. ET. 4
Rivian’s stock last month jumped after it said it would shift away from Nvidia processors for autonomous driving and roll out its own Rivian Autonomy Processor, to be produced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. Rivian also introduced an Autonomy+ driver-assistance package priced at $2,500 or $49.99 a month and said it expects to launch “eyes-off” functionality in 2026 — the kind of feature that still requires a human driver to stay ready. BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello wrote that the event “cements our view for Rivian to become the number 2 North America EV player.” 5
Separately, Rivian and Volkswagen Group Technologies are hosting a Car Connectivity Consortium “Plugfest” in Palo Alto this week to test new digital-key standards that let drivers unlock and start cars with phones and wearables, the consortium said. 6
But Rivian’s challenge is still mundane: keep demand steady while spending rises, and prove the next round of cost cuts sticks. A delayed R2 ramp, weaker pricing or a bigger cash hole could quickly bring fresh funding — and dilution — back into the conversation.
