Sydney, Jan 13, 2026, 17:19 AEDT — The market has closed.
- ANZ Group Holdings closed 1.6% higher at A$36.48, with intraday moves ranging from A$35.76 to A$36.50. 1
- Morgan Stanley maintained an equal-weight rating on ANZ, setting a target of A$36, and warned that bank returns might diverge significantly again in 2026. 2
- Attention shifts to Australia’s CPI report due Jan. 28, with the RBA’s Feb. 2–3 meeting in the spotlight amid growing rate-hike speculation.
ANZ Group Holdings Limited shares ended Tuesday up 1.6%, closing at A$36.48. Investors reacted to a new Morgan Stanley report that singled out the bank as a contender for another year of strong returns among Australia’s big banks. 3
Why it matters now: bank stocks have shifted focus back to interest rates, as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate sits at 3.6% following three cuts last year. The buzz is now swirling around whether the next move will be an increase rather than another cut.
A Westpac–Melbourne Institute survey revealed a 1.7% drop in consumer sentiment this January. Westpac’s Matthew Hassan pointed to changing rate expectations as the key factor behind the decline.
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.56% higher in Sydney. Among the major banks, NAB surged 1.85%, Westpac climbed 1.10%, and Commonwealth Bank edged up 0.48%, market data showed. 4
Morgan Stanley highlighted that the performance gap between the top and bottom major banks has exceeded 10% in 23 of the last 25 years and warned it could surpass 20% in 2026, citing that these lenders are at varying stages in their strategy cycles. 5
For ANZ, the broker highlighted a “comprehensive and credible” new strategy and noted its valuation comes at a discount to NAB and Westpac — reflected in a cheaper price-to-earnings multiple, which compares share price to profits. They also flagged ANZ’s lower exposure to a long pause in interest rates or additional RBA hikes. 2
Morgan Stanley maintained its equal-weight rating on ANZ, signaling a hold, and held firm on a A$36 target price, just under Tuesday’s closing level. 2
On Monday, ANZ broadened its tie with Tennis Australia, stepping up as the official bank of the Australian Open and introducing the “ANZ Arena” at Melbourne & Olympic Park. “Our partnership is about creating opportunities for Australians to celebrate sport at its best,” said ANZ group executive Mark Whelan. 6
The bank filed a change of director’s interest notice on Monday as part of its routine disclosures. On Tuesday, it issued NZX notices detailing a cessation of securities and updates to unquoted securities. 7
There is a clear risk here. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it could push expectations toward a February rate hike by the RBA. That would raise the odds of tighter financial conditions and increased pressure on borrowers. Meanwhile, ANZ is still under the microscope over non-financial risk controls after a Federal Court slapped a A$250 million penalty on the bank last December. 8
Traders are eyeing the ABS CPI data set for Jan. 28, right before the RBA’s monetary policy meeting on Feb. 2–3. As for ANZ, the company’s half-year earnings report is lined up for May 7. 9
