NEW YORK, Jan 13, 2026, 07:26 EST — Regular session
- Early trading saw NYMEX heating oil (ULSD) futures climb, buoyed by a crude-fueled risk appetite.
- Concerns over Iran’s supply and new shipping risks kept refined products firm, despite traders factoring in additional barrels from Venezuela.
- Jan. 14 will bring the next U.S. fuel stockpiles report, while colder weather predictions add extra pressure.
U.S. heating oil futures rose 1.5% to $2.1876 a gallon in early Tuesday trading, following Monday’s close at $2.1544. 1
This move is significant since heating oil is part of the distillate pool—a group that also includes diesel—and price fluctuations can quickly impact winter fuel expenses and freight charges. The U.S. Energy Information Administration warns that reduced distillate inventories may increase the chances of steeper price hikes and greater volatility through the heating season. 2
Crude led the gains. Brent jumped close to 2%, while U.S. crude climbed around 2%, as traders factored in the risk of supply disruptions linked to Iran. Barclays estimates the geopolitical premium at roughly $3-$4 per barrel. “The oil market is building in some price protection against geopolitical drivers,” said John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates. 3
Oil hit seven-week highs on Monday, fueled by concerns over Iranian exports. Yet, the rally stalled as hopes for increased supply from Venezuela kept gains in check, Reuters reported. Trafigura informed a White House meeting that its first vessel is expected to load within the next week, the report added. 4
Demand risk has resurfaced. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center’s Week-2 hazards outlook from Jan. 12 highlights a chance of much-below-normal temperatures in sections of the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast around Jan. 20-21, with another cold spell later in the period. This could push heating oil demand higher in the crucial U.S. consumption belt. 5
Traders often refer to “heating oil,” but the main contract is actually NY Harbor ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD). Priced in dollars per gallon, each contract covers 42,000 gallons. It trades almost 24/7, except for a daily pause. 6
That connection to diesel explains why the contract often behaves more like a transport fuel than merely a home-heating product. Shifts in European gasoil, refinery operations, and shipping hiccups can swiftly impact U.S. prices, especially amid strong crude movements.
Right now, inventories and weather are the main focus. A dip in distillate stocks could squeeze near-term supply and push the front of the curve higher. But if temperatures ease up, it might counteract that, even with crude prices holding steady.
Bulls face a risk, too. Should tensions with Iran ease or Venezuelan exports pick up sooner than expected, crude prices might slide, dragging distillates down. And if the cold snap fizzles, heating oil demand in the Northeast could drop sharply, weakening price support fast.
