New York, Jan 16, 2026, 11:00 EST — Regular session
- Eli Lilly shares up about 0.3% in morning trade after an early dip
- FDA review timing for Lilly’s obesity pill and fresh legal fights keep traders cautious
- Rival Novo’s early Wegovy pill script data adds pressure to the GLP-1 race
Eli Lilly shares rose 0.3% to $1,036.46 on Friday morning, after touching as low as $1,019, as investors weighed an updated U.S. regulatory timeline for the company’s experimental obesity pill. 1
The stock has become a proxy for how fast the next wave of weight-loss drugs can move from injections to pills — and whether demand holds up as insurers push back and more patients pay cash. That question is getting louder this week as early U.S. prescription data for Novo Nordisk’s newly launched Wegovy pill begins to circulate among investors and analysts. 2
Regulatory uncertainty is part of it. The Food and Drug Administration’s fast-track “voucher” program was pitched as a way to shorten review times, but recent internal reviews show agency staff have extended timelines on some drugs after raising safety and efficacy questions. “Hold on, we’re not actually sure this product should be allowed on the market,” Holly Fernandez Lynch, a health policy professor at the University of Pennsylvania, said. 1
Lilly has also found itself pulled into a fresh legal fight around the same blockbuster franchise. A compounding pharmacy, Strive Specialties, sued Lilly and Novo in Texas, accusing them of using exclusive deals with major telehealth providers to restrict access to lower-cost compounded GLP-1 versions. Lilly called the suit “wrong” and Novo said the claims were “without merit.” 3
On the competitive front, analysts are trying to read the first scraps of data from Novo’s Wegovy pill launch. IQVIA data shared by analysts showed 3,071 retail prescriptions in the first four days after launch, and Barclays analysts described the uptake as “strong, very early.” 4
Novo’s U.S.-listed shares were up about 5% on Friday, while Lilly’s move was more muted — a reminder that the market is trading this story on small data points, shifting policy signals and timing risk as much as on fundamentals.
The setup cuts both ways. If the oral market opens faster than expected, it could pull in patients who have resisted weekly shots and expand the addressable pool. If regulators slow-roll decisions or insurers tighten coverage, the ramp can look choppy.
Investors will also keep an eye on how the FDA handles the voucher program in practice. Lilly’s research chief Dan Skovronsky has backed the approach, saying it moves top-priority products to “the front of the queue” rather than cutting corners, but he also said companies want the agency to remain “science-driven.” 5
The next near-term catalyst for Lilly is its quarterly update. The company has scheduled its Q4 2025 earnings call for Feb. 4. 6
Beyond that, traders are watching for additional weeks of prescription data in the new oral GLP-1 market — and for any change in the FDA’s expected decision window for Lilly’s obesity pill.
