Natural gas price outlook: Henry Hub futures brace for MLK holiday as U.S. cold snap hits

Natural gas price outlook: Henry Hub futures brace for MLK holiday as U.S. cold snap hits

New York, Jan 18, 2026, 12:27 EST — The market has closed.

  • Henry Hub February futures closed 2.5 cents lower at $3.103 per mmBtu on Friday, according to CME data.
  • A winter storm is driving colder air through the Midwest and East, maintaining strong heating demand. 1
  • The U.S. stock market will be closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. CME confirmed it won’t release settlement prices on that date. 2

U.S. natural gas futures slipped Friday as traders turned their focus back to weather risks ahead of the long weekend.

The front-month Henry Hub contract closed at $3.103 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), slipping 2.5 cents. According to CME’s daily bulletin, it swung between $3.020 and $3.230 during the session.

Monday’s U.S. holiday will thin liquidity, which matters since gas prices often shift sharply on forecast updates when heating demand is the key factor.

The upcoming session falls amid a biting cold snap hitting sections of the United States. A winter storm is sparking hazardous wind chills and snow threats stretching from the Midwest to the East Coast, the National Weather Service warned, according to The Associated Press. 1

Overseas demand is playing a role. Spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in Asia hit a six-week peak this week, driven by colder weather forecasts that boosted buying, Reuters reported. “The weather outlook across Northeast Asia and Europe has turned colder week-on-week,” said Kesher Sumeet, senior LNG analyst at Energy Aspects. 3

Heating degree days (HDDs), which increase as temperatures drop and heating demand grows, are expected to stay above average in Northeast Asia later this January, Sumeet said. 3

European delivered LNG benchmarks climbed on expectations of colder weather and quicker storage withdrawals. “European delivered prices have risen sharply this week for the first quarter,” said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus. 3

U.S.-listed United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), following front-month gas futures, ended Friday at $10.33, rising 0.29%, according to Nasdaq data. 4

Storage remains a key metric for traders trying to validate weather-related swings. On Jan. 15, the Energy Information Administration reported that working gas in storage was 3,185 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of Jan. 9. That’s a decline of 71 Bcf from the previous week but still above the five-year average. 5

A major concern for bulls is the potential fading of the cold signal. Forecasts often shift rapidly in late January, and a sudden warm-up could reduce heating demand, even as supply and storage stay relatively ample compared to recent levels. 5

Markets are also contending with holiday scheduling. CME announced it won’t calculate or release settlement prices this Monday. 6

Coming soon: revised U.S. temperature forecasts for late January and the next EIA weekly storage report, set for Jan. 22 at 10:30 a.m. ET. 5

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