Sydney, Jan 19, 2026, 16:51 AEDT — The market has closed.
BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) shares dipped on Monday, dragged down by falling iron ore futures. New data out of China rattled traders, raising doubts about steel demand ahead.
The stock ended the day 0.35% lower, settling at A$48.82. 1
Attention shifts to BHP’s Operational Review on Tuesday, a production update for the half-year ending Dec. 31. This report frequently influences market moves in miners over the following days. 2
China’s newest data offered little relief. The economy expanded by 5.0% in 2025 but cooled to 4.5% in Q4, with property investment tumbling 17.2% year-on-year, official figures show. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver noted that “momentum has slowed.” 3
Iron ore futures dropped to their lowest in two weeks. The May contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 2.8% to 792 yuan a tonne during morning trading. Meanwhile, the benchmark February iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange slipped 1.6%, landing at $104.60 a tonne. These futures reflect traders’ expectations for prices in the months ahead. 4
China’s housing market continues to lag. New home prices dropped 0.4% month-on-month in December and slid 2.7% compared to the same month last year, according to Reuters calculations. Jeff Zhang, an equity analyst at Morningstar, warned the sector’s weakness is “likely to remain a major drag on China’s growth over the next two to three years.” 5
China’s crude steel production dropped to 960.81 million tonnes in 2025, marking a 4.4% decline from 2024 and hitting its lowest point since 2018, Reuters reported. At the same time, exports climbed to an all-time high. Analysts predict another output decline in 2026, but at a more moderate rate. 6
Equity research is starting to point out stretched valuations. Morningstar analyst Jon Mills said the firm now expects “iron ore averages about USD 100 per metric ton from 2026 to 2028” and raised its fair value estimate for BHP to $44. He also highlighted mixed results among key peers, with Rio Tinto climbing 0.76% while Fortescue slipped 1.88%. 7
The downside remains obvious. Should BHP’s production update reveal weaker shipments or rising unit costs, the stock could falter even if iron ore only slips slightly. A sharper drop in demand tied to China would only heighten that threat.
The next major event after Tuesday’s update will be BHP’s half-year results on Feb. 17. That’s when investors will see the earnings and dividend details for the December half. 8
