LONDON, Jan 20, 2026, 12:18 GMT — Regular session
- Brent crude futures climbed 0.2% to $64.01 a barrel, while U.S. WTI added 0.5% to reach $59.72
- Traders balanced U.S. tariff threats targeting Greenland with stronger global growth forecasts and fresh data from China
- Attention shifts to the WTI February contract expiry and the upcoming U.S. inventory report due later this week
Brent crude futures edged up 0.2% to $64.01 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.5% to $59.72 on Tuesday, as investors reacted to fresh U.S. tariff threats connected to Greenland. 1
The tug-of-war matters now because the Greenland dispute is seen as a demand risk rather than a sudden drop in barrels hitting the market. If tensions escalate into a U.S.-Europe trade battle, it would hit growth and curb fuel consumption. Crude prices haven’t had much cushion to take on more negative news.
Currency plays a key role here. When the dollar weakens, it tends to support oil prices since crude is priced in dollars, effectively lowering costs for buyers who use other currencies.
In oil-specific trading, PVM analyst Tamas Varga said tariff worries didn’t seem to shift supply and demand dynamics right away, despite stronger diesel prices and the IMF’s upward tweak to global growth forecasts offering some support. IG analyst Tony Sycamore noted that better-than-expected Chinese GDP figures gave demand sentiment a boost. Traders also kept an eye on Venezuela, where Vitol reportedly offered April cargoes to Chinese buyers at around $5 a barrel below ICE Brent, according to trade sources. 2
Liquidity was thin the previous day due to the U.S. federal holiday, shifting focus away from Iran as unrest there seemed to ease. Rystad analyst Janiv Shah pointed to Greenland and the threat that “any trade war expansion could impact demand.” Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston labeled the dispute as broadly “risk-off” for investors. Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group suggested crude might stay in “sideways trade.” 3
Contract mechanics are affecting the market as well. According to CME’s calendar, the last trade date for the February 2026 NYMEX WTI crude contract is Jan. 20. This often stirs up short-term price volatility when traders shift their positions into future months. 4
Traders are eyeing U.S. inventory figures in the data calendar, a crucial gauge of supply and demand that shows crude volumes in commercial storage. The next update from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report is due Jan. 22. 5
Tuesday’s calm has a downside. Should tariff threats turn into actual policy and Europe push back, expectations for demand could drop fast. Meanwhile, discounted Venezuelan barrels entering the market would only deepen the bearish outlook if those shipments keep coming.
Next in line is the WTI roll following the February contract’s expiration, followed by Thursday’s Brussels emergency summit and U.S. stockpile data. This blend of events, rather than refinery fundamentals, has driven crude’s recent moves.
