NEW YORK, Jan 10, 2026, 12:54 EST — Market closed
- After meeting at the White House, Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips set out conditions for investing in Venezuela
- Brent closed Friday at $63.34 a barrel, while WTI settled at $59.12, with tensions in Iran and ongoing Russia-Ukraine concerns tightening supply considerations
- Investors are focused on U.S. licensing changes, shipping snags, and a surge of earnings reports hitting late January
U.S. oil stocks showed mixed moves heading into the weekend after executives told President Donald Trump they’d consider returning to Venezuela only if new legal and security assurances are in place. Exxon Mobil rose 1.4%, Chevron climbed 1.8%, while ConocoPhillips dropped 1.2%. Oilfield services players SLB and Halliburton gained roughly 1.8% and 1.4%, respectively. Exxon CEO Darren Woods labeled Venezuela “uninvestable” under current conditions. Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson said the firm could potentially double liftings and boost production by about 50% within 18 to 24 months. Reuters
The White House has made oil a key focus in its Venezuela approach following the U.S. forces’ overnight capture of President Nicolas Maduro on Jan. 3. Trump told industry leaders he aims for $100 billion in investment and insisted the U.S. would choose which companies “are going to go in,” arguing that reliable crude supplies would help drive down domestic energy costs. Reuters
Oil prices are already reacting to political developments. Brent closed Friday at $63.34 a barrel, with U.S. WTI at $59.12. Traders are focused on unrest in Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, even as rising inventories and oversupply linger in the background, analysts noted. Phil Flynn from Price Futures Group said the Iran uprising is keeping the market jittery, while Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank highlighted increasing worries over potential supply disruptions.
Investors aren’t betting on Venezuela as a fast payoff. David Byrns, a portfolio manager at American Century Investments, noted that shareholders are looking for lasting stability and fiscal terms that shield them from another nationalization. Former U.S. energy diplomat Geoffrey Pyatt described the divide as an attractive resource against “above-ground” risks and unpaid claims. Reuters
The Trump administration is currently relying on traders and logistics to manage near-term oil flows. Commodity giants Trafigura and Vitol have agreed to handle logistical and marketing roles for Venezuelan oil sales at Washington’s request. Trafigura CEO Richard Holtum informed Trump that the company plans to load its first shipment of Venezuelan crude bound for the U.S. next week. A senior Vitol executive told the White House the firm is ready to help “move” the oil globally, according to a company statement. Reuters
Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that Chevron envisions boosting Venezuelan output by roughly 50% within 18 to 24 months—provided it secures all required permissions and approvals. The White House noted robust industry interest but stopped short of detailing any firm commitments.
The situation at sea is complicated. Four mostly loaded tankers that left Venezuela with their transponders switched off—operating in “dark mode”—have now returned to Venezuelan waters, according to PDVSA and tanker tracker TankerTrackers.com. PDVSA reported that one vessel was intercepted and seized by the U.S. this week, while another was intercepted but released on Friday. Reuters
Headline risks are clashing with the market’s wider supply dynamics. On Thursday, Brent climbed 3.4%, closing at $61.99, while WTI added 3.2%, finishing at $57.76. Ritterbusch and Associates noted these crude prices are nearing pre-Maduro removal levels but cautioned that significant Venezuelan oil reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast might still be years off. Raymond James strategist Pavel Molchanov highlighted that Iran’s exports, which account for about 2% of global supply, could come under threat depending on how the unrest unfolds.
Still, the risk to oil stocks remains. If worries over Iran or Russia ease soon, crude prices might lose this week’s gains, forcing producers to adjust cash-flow forecasts just as boards mull fresh spending. Plus, if sanctioned Venezuelan crude flows onto the market sooner than anticipated, prices could be pressured again—even though executives insist a full production recovery will take time.
With U.S. markets closed, investors are turning their attention to potential license rulings and shipping snarls ahead of a packed earnings schedule. Halliburton is set to report fourth-quarter results on Jan. 21. Exxon and Chevron will both hold earnings calls on Jan. 30, while ConocoPhillips is lined up for Feb. 5.
