London, January 21, 2026, 12:19 GMT — Regular session.
- Brent slipped 0.2% to hover around $65, retracing some of the 1.5% gain seen the previous day
- Traders are focused on the postponed U.S. crude and fuel inventory reports expected this week
- Kazakhstan outage, looming Greenland tariff threats, and growing Iran risks keep markets on edge
Brent crude futures slipped on Wednesday, retreating slightly from gains made in the prior session as traders digested upcoming U.S. crude inventory data alongside fresh geopolitical tensions. By 1125 GMT, Brent had dropped 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $64.80 a barrel. 1
Brent dipped after Tuesday’s close at $64.92, which was up 1.53%, boosted by a brief outage at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz and Korolev oilfields and stronger Chinese economic figures. Ajay Parmar, ICIS director of energy and refining, described the disruption as “temporary,” but warned that ongoing tariff tensions might weigh on prices. 2
The International Energy Agency’s latest outlook failed to ease the cap. While the Paris-based group lifted its forecast for oil demand growth in 2026, it warned the market will remain oversupplied. The IEA said “bloated balances” continue to cap prices. 3
The oil market is bracing for U.S. inventory data, with a Reuters poll forecasting a 1.7 million-barrel increase in crude stockpiles last week. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly figures Wednesday, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is set to report Thursday, delayed by a holiday. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed to a “risk-off” mood as tariff threats tied to Greenland cast a shadow over demand forecasts. 4
Oil traders keep a close eye on inventories as a straightforward gauge of whether refineries and consumers are drawing barrels from storage or if supply is piling up. A larger-than-expected build can drag prices down fast, even if it turns out to be short-lived.
Brent hovered just below $64 earlier this week, with traders seeing Iran’s unrest as cooling off. Instead, eyes turned to the Greenland standoff and the potential fallout from a broader trade conflict that could dampen fuel demand. “The market is now focusing on the Greenland situation,” said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah, as Europe readied for an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday. 5
The market remains caught between immediate disruptions and the long-term outlook. Kazakhstan’s outage is significant, yet it’s considered temporary. Meanwhile, forecasters continue to highlight a well-supplied 2026.
But a lot could still go sideways. Should U.S. stockpiles climb beyond forecasts and tariff threats turn into actual policy, Brent might drop as traders scale back growth and demand outlooks. On the flip side, if the Kazakhstan shutdown stretches out or tensions with Iran reignite, the market would likely snap up any dip fast.
Wednesday brings the API estimates, followed by the EIA data on Thursday. Meanwhile, eyes will be on any updates about Kazakhstan’s restart schedule and the Brussels summit, which could influence Europe’s stance on Washington’s Greenland move.
