SYDNEY, Jan 22, 2026, 16:49 AEDT — After-hours trading update
- After climbing 1.5% Wednesday, BHP shares slipped 0.7% on Thursday
- Investors remain focused on iron ore pricing talks with China’s CMRG, alongside rising costs from the Jansen potash project
- Attention shifts to BHP’s half-year results on Feb. 17, with investors watching closely for any hints on 2026 contract pricing
BHP Group Ltd shares slipped 0.7% to close at A$48.14 on Thursday, erasing part of the previous session’s gains. Investors remained focused on ongoing iron ore price pressure and rising costs at its Jansen potash project. 1
This move is crucial as the miner aims to safeguard iron ore margins amid annual talks with China’s state-backed buyer. Plus, Jansen has turned into BHP’s major capital focus beyond just copper and iron ore.
The announcement arrives mere weeks ahead of the company’s half-year results, a period when investors zero in on cash flow, dividends, and spending discipline. For BHP, the discussion is anything but straightforward: rising project costs clash with strong pricing power in its top product.
BHP’s operational review, out earlier this week, showed record first-half shipments from its Western Australia Iron Ore unit. The company said its average realised iron ore price climbed 4% to $84.71 per wet metric ton, the moisture-adjusted benchmark for seaborne iron ore. It raised its full-year copper production forecast to 1.9 million to 2.0 million tonnes, while keeping iron ore guidance unchanged. CEO Mike Henry described the results as “another half of very strong performance.” BHP also noted that contract negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group have “seen some impact to realised price.” The company will release half-year results on Feb. 17.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker described the discounts appearing on certain BHP products as “optical, temporary and economically bounded.” He cautioned, however, that the larger threat lies in benchmark fragmentation if the market fractures across different pricing indices. 2
BHP announced this week its Jansen Stage 1 potash project cost estimate has climbed to $8.4 billion, pushing first production back to mid-2027. The project is currently 75% complete. Brandon Craig, BHP’s President Americas, described Jansen as “an important pillar in BHP’s long-term growth strategy.” 3
BHP’s shares have been volatile following the update. On Wednesday, the stock gained roughly 1.5% as Australia’s materials sector outpaced others. This rebound came after a steeper decline earlier in the week, triggered by the Jansen project’s cost revision hitting the market. 4
The road ahead isn’t smooth. If pricing tensions with China drag on, discounts could stay wider than normal. On top of that, any additional delays or rising costs at Jansen would push investors to zero in on capital returns instead of growth opportunities.
Traders are now eyeing any hints that talks over the iron ore contract might be loosening ahead of the next pricing benchmarks. They’ll also be focused on BHP’s capex plans and cash return details when the company reports on Feb. 17.
