MELBOURNE, Jan 22, 2026, 17:22 AEDT — Market closed
Lynas Rare Earths Limited shares pushed higher again on Thursday, finishing up 2.9% at A$16.75. The gains came after the miner released its December-quarter update and rare earth prices saw an uptick. The day before, the stock had surged 6.7%.
This matters since Lynas stands as one of the rare major rare earths suppliers outside China. The market buzz is growing about potential policy moves aimed at keeping prices above production costs. That’s a straight shot to boosting earnings for a company selling neodymium-praseodymium, or NdPr, crucial for permanent magnets in electric motors.
Traders are also grappling with a more straightforward issue: will Lynas manage to maintain shipments while addressing power and maintenance hiccups following a weak production quarter. Price gains won’t stick if volumes remain unstable.
Chief executive Amanda Lacaze said government-backed minimum price settings are helping to make the market “more functional” and pushing prices toward “sustainable levels.” Lynas reported a 43% jump in quarterly sales revenue, reaching A$201.9 million, driven by an increase in average selling prices to A$85.60 per kg, up from A$49.20 a year ago. “As recently as yesterday, we had two significant power outages,” she noted on an analyst call, citing ongoing disruptions at Kalgoorlie despite some fixes. Reuters
Lynas reported that major maintenance at its Malaysia cracking-and-leaching circuit reduced capacity during the quarter, though the unit resumed operations in early January. “Ready for sale” rare earth oxide output declined to 2,382 tonnes from 3,993 tonnes in the previous quarter, and NdPr production fell to 1,404 tonnes. Meanwhile, output of heavy rare earths dysprosium and terbium increased to 26 tonnes. The company also started work on expanding its heavy rare earth separation circuit in Malaysia, targeting first samarium production in Q4 FY26. It noted uncertainty remains over the future of its Seadrift, Texas heavy rare earths facility and the form it might take.
That combination — rising realised prices coupled with falling near-term output — explains the choppy yet steady share price moves. Bulls bet on policy shifts and geopolitics to support prices; bears focus on plant data, bracing for the next slip-up.
The rare earths sector has seen fresh activity. Energy Fuels’ acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials has reignited talk of consolidation. Reuters points to policy moves—such as talks on price floors—as a major factor driving the industry. MP Materials remains a key beneficiary of U.S. backing, with interest spreading to other players along the supply chain.
Still, there’s a clear “but.” If power issues at Kalgoorlie persist, or if government talk of a floor price doesn’t materialize into firm backing, this rally could unravel fast — particularly if Chinese prices shift back and tighten margins.
Traders gearing up for the next session will keep an eye on rare earth price signals, updates on off-grid power initiatives in Kalgoorlie, and if the post-results boost sparks new buying or shifts into profit-taking. According to MarketScreener’s company events calendar, Lynas is expected to report earnings on March 3.
