New York, Jan 22, 2026, 10:15 EST — Regular session
- Moderna shares rise again, extending gains to a second day on optimism surrounding its oncology catalyst
- Five-year results show a 49% drop in the risk of melanoma returning or causing death when using the Keytruda combination
- Focus now turns to the Phase 3 timeline and Moderna’s results call set for Feb. 13
Moderna shares climbed 7.7% to $53.65 Thursday morning, extending gains fueled by fresh long-term data on its experimental personalized cancer vaccine, created in partnership with Merck.
Moderna’s push is vital as it aims to convince investors it can thrive beyond COVID vaccines. A promising mid-stage oncology trial could swiftly shift investor sentiment.
Wall Street opened sharply higher after President Donald Trump softened his stance on tariffs targeting European countries. The Dow surged 0.81%, and the S&P 500 climbed 0.70% at the start of trading. 1
Moderna and Merck revealed Tuesday that their vaccine, intismeran autogene, when paired with Merck’s Keytruda, cut the risk of recurrence or death by 49% after five years in high-risk melanoma patients post-surgery. “If Moderna can replicate this 49% risk reduction in the larger phase 3 trial, that bodes well,” said Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen. But UBS’s Michael Yee warned the durability still needs confirmation in late-stage trials. Jefferies analysts put the potential price near Keytruda’s roughly $200,000 and project the combo could reach multi-billion-dollar peak sales in melanoma, with the American Cancer Society forecasting about 112,000 U.S. cases in 2026. 2
In a press release, the companies said the phase 2b KEYNOTE-942 trial enrolled 157 patients and met its primary endpoint: recurrence-free survival, which tracks the time before cancer returns or a patient dies. They reported a hazard ratio of 0.510 versus Keytruda alone and plan to present more detailed data at an upcoming medical conference. “Today’s results highlight the potential of a prolonged benefit,” said Moderna oncology chief Kyle Holen. Merck’s Marjorie Green called the five-year follow-up a “meaningful milestone” for patients at high risk of relapse post-surgery. 3
The stock jumped 15.84% on Wednesday, settling at $49.81 after briefly climbing to a 52-week peak of $50. This spike followed the company’s update, which reignited investor appetite for the biotech firm. 4
That said, the rally rests on mid-stage data from a single tumor type. Phase 3 trials are usually bigger and far less predictable, so a poor result could deal a serious blow to the commercial prospects.
Investors face a major challenge: designing and producing personalized vaccines takes time for each patient. That delay drags out the rollout despite solid effectiveness and piles on financial pressure for payers, especially alongside expensive immunotherapies.
Moderna is set to release its Q4 and full-year results on Feb. 13. Investors are keenly awaiting clearer guidance on cash burn and any new details about the phase 3 melanoma data timeline. 5
