New York, January 22, 2026, 11:21 EST — Regular session
Lumentum Holdings Inc shares dipped 0.5% to $360.72 late Thursday morning, following a session range from $350.38 up to $391.24.
The laser and optical components maker is quickly turning into a key indicator for data-center network spending, driven by cloud providers routing more traffic over faster connections to support AI server clusters.
The recent flurry of activity coincides with analysts repeatedly adjusting their price targets—brokers’ forecasts for a stock’s value over the next year—in significant jumps, despite the shares having already surged sharply.
Stifel boosted its price target on Lumentum to $400 from $220, maintaining a Buy rating. The firm highlighted a “step-function increase in networking intensity” driven by newer AI systems ramping up data-center traffic. It also noted “positively biased estimate revisions” for Lumentum, along with peers Ciena and Coherent, even as valuations hit multi-year highs. 1
Christopher Rolland at Susquehanna boosted his price target sharply, from $230 to $420, while keeping a positive rating, a report on GuruFocus showed. 2
Rolland said management sees 2026 shaping up as a “breakout year” for laser chip shipments, driven by Lumentum’s ramp-up of indium phosphide device capacity. Indium phosphide, a semiconductor material, is key to certain high-speed laser chips. 3
Earlier this week, Aletheia Capital raised its price target for Lumentum to $500 from $330, maintaining a Buy rating. The firm pointed to stronger demand for electro-absorption modulated lasers (EMLs), which are key components in high-speed optical links. Aletheia also noted that risks around the supply of indium phosphide substrates “appear limited,” referencing inventory levels at suppliers like JSR and Sumitomo. 4
Aletheia’s action sparked about a 10% intraday jump on Tuesday, fueling the stock’s recent swings following a steep climb that brought it close to its 52-week high. 5
A recent regulatory filing included a brief note: a Form 4 revealed that chief accounting officer Matthew Joseph Sepe had 563 shares withheld to meet tax obligations on vesting restricted stock units, valued at $343.27 each. 6
The broader AI-networking basket showed mixed results Thursday. Coherent gained roughly 0.8%, but Ciena dropped around 1.3%.
Yet the stock has climbed past the average analyst target price tracked by MarketScreener, a position that leaves little room for error. Even minor setbacks—like a drop in data-center orders or hiccups in laser capacity growth and yields—could turn Thursday’s volatility into a more pronounced sell-off. 7
Lumentum is set to release its fiscal second-quarter results after the market closes on Feb. 3, followed by a webcast at 5 p.m. ET. Investors will focus on demand trends for high-speed optics, pricing developments, and how quickly production ramps are progressing. 8
