Sydney, Jan 23, 2026, 16:50 AEDT — Market closed
Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares slipped A$1.14, or 0.76%, ending Friday at A$149.47 after climbing the day before. The stock traded in a range from A$148.00 to A$149.93 and is still down about 7% from its 2026 opening price. (Investing)
Markets remain closed as attention turns to next week’s inflation figures and the Reserve Bank’s upcoming decision in early February. For bank stocks, even a slight rate change can quickly alter the story.
Rising rates have boosted lending margins but also raised repayments, threatening to cool the housing market—the key collateral behind Australian mortgages. This fragile balance is back in focus after a string of volatile sessions for major lenders.
Australian jobs surged far beyond expectations, shaking up rate hike bets. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% as December saw 65,200 new jobs, Reuters reported. That jump pushed traders to price in a 57% chance of a rate increase in February. UBS economists criticized the labour market, saying it’s “going the wrong way” for the central bank’s inflation goals. Meanwhile, Harry Murphy Cruise from Oxford Economics Australia identified 3.2% as the “magic number” for trimmed-mean inflation, a gauge that strips out the most volatile price swings. (Reuters)
The S&P/ASX 200 ended Friday up 0.13% at 8,860, showing little change despite late swings in financial stocks. The Australian dollar hovered near 68.47 U.S. cents. Spot gold stayed steady, around $4,956 an ounce, according to the ABC. (ABC)
For CBA, the next few sessions look set to revolve more around positioning than fresh company updates. Traders are snapping up dips but offloading gains during rallies, caught between doubts over whether “restrictive” policy is still holding or beginning to loosen.
Investors are zeroing in on net interest margin — the difference between what banks earn on loans and what they pay to fund them — along with early signals of stress in home loans and small business credit. These issues tend to draw more attention once rates begin to move again.
The trade isn’t one-sided. A hotter inflation print could ramp up expectations for rate hikes and heighten worries about a housing slowdown. Conversely, a cooler figure might dial back hawkish bets and refocus attention on mortgage competition.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the December-quarter CPI figures are set for release on Wednesday, Jan. 28, at 11:30 a.m. AEDT. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Board will convene on Feb. 2–3, with a policy announcement due on Feb. 3, according to the official schedule. (Reserve Bank of Australia)
CBA will unveil its half-year results and declare its interim dividend on Feb. 11. (Commbank)
