NEW YORK, Jan 23, 2026, 07:16 EST — Premarket
- Front-month RBOB gasoline futures climbed roughly 1%, hitting $1.8346 per gallon in early trading.
- U.S. gasoline inventories climbed by 6.0 million barrels last week, lifting stocks beyond typical seasonal levels.
- This week, the U.S. average price for regular gasoline remained steady at $2.85 a gallon.
U.S. gasoline futures climbed close to 1% early Friday, pushing the February RBOB contract to $1.8346 per gallon. The benchmark contract gained 1.74 cents compared to the previous close. 1
The market is now facing a glut of supply heading into mid-winter. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, total motor gasoline inventories climbed by 6.0 million barrels last week, sitting roughly 5% above the five-year average. Refineries operated at 93.3% capacity during that time. Gasoline production hit an average of 8.8 million barrels per day, while the EIA’s “product supplied” figure — a stand-in for demand — averaged 8.2 million bpd over the last four weeks. 2
Gas prices held steady at the pump, with the national average for regular gasoline at $2.85 a gallon, AAA reported. Winter weather has kept many drivers off the roads, slowing demand. According to AAA, consumption usually begins to rise in late February or early March. 3
Crude oil edged higher, boosting gasoline after Thursday’s slide. By 1026 GMT, March Brent futures climbed 76 cents, or 1.2%, to $64.82 a barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. WTI gained 75 cents, or 1.3%, hitting $60.11. The move came as President Donald Trump once again issued warnings against Iran, with ongoing supply concerns from Kazakhstan also supporting prices. 4
Oil and fuel prices dropped Thursday, pulled down by a quick shift in geopolitical risk and fresh data showing U.S. storage isn’t as tight as feared. Ole Hansen, chief commodity analyst at Saxo Bank, pointed to a “deflation of risk premium” following Trump’s softened stance on Greenland and Iran. Tony Sycamore from IG expects oil to hover near $60 a barrel. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser dismissed worries about a global supply glut. 5
Gasoline traders often react first to crude oil headlines before refocusing on fundamentals. Large stock builds can limit price rallies, particularly in January, when driving demand typically weakens and refiners continue pumping out supply as runs remain elevated.
The risk is straightforward: another big gasoline build in the upcoming inventory report could send the market tumbling fast. Sluggish demand or new breakthroughs in a Ukraine deal easing Russian supply limits would add downward pressure.
The flip side is straightforward. Another flare-up in the Middle East or a larger export disruption from Iran or Kazakhstan would probably push crude prices higher—and gasoline futures along with them—even though U.S. stockpiles appear solid.
The next major event is the government inventory report set for Jan. 28, when the EIA will release weekly petroleum data covering the week ending Jan. 23. Traders will focus on whether gasoline inventories continue to rise and if refinery utilization remains high for this time of year. 6
