NEW YORK, January 23, 2026, 13:40 (EST) — Regular session.
- Spot gold rose about 0.8% and set a fresh record near $4,988 an ounce
- Gold-linked ETFs and miners advanced in U.S. trading
- Focus shifts to the Fed’s Jan. 27-28 meeting and policy signals on rates
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prices pushed higher on Friday, printing another all-time high and hovering just below $5,000 an ounce as a softer dollar and a run of geopolitical headlines kept safe-haven demand in play. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,976.63 an ounce after touching $4,988.16; the dollar index was down about 0.6%. 1
The move matters now because bullion is testing a round-number threshold that tends to draw in momentum money and force reluctant shorts to rethink. Lower U.S. interest-rate expectations also help: gold pays no interest, so the metal usually looks better when bond yields and the dollar ease.
Goldman Sachs this week lifted its end-2026 forecast for gold to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900, pointing to diversification demand from private investors and emerging-market central banks. “We assume private sector diversification buyers … don’t liquidate their gold holdings in 2026,” the bank wrote, and it projected central-bank buying averaging 60 tonnes this year. 2
Gold’s run bled quickly into related tradeables. SPDR Gold Shares, the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose about 1.3% to $457.64, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF gained roughly 0.9% to $106.09; Newmont climbed about 1.3% to $123.27.
Thursday’s jump was powered by “ongoing geopolitical tensions, a softer U.S. dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts,” Reuters reported. Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, called it part of a “macro de-dollarisation trend” and said “short-term setbacks will be viewed as buying opportunities,” adding that $5,000 was in view. 3
Physical markets are also feeling the strain of record prices. In India, bullion dealers charged premiums of up to $112 an ounce over official domestic prices this week — the highest since May 2014 — as investors bought ahead of the Feb. 1 budget amid fears of a higher import duty. “Demand was really strong this week and ran ahead of supply,” said Chanda Venkatesh, managing director at CapsGold, while Peter Fung at Wing Fung Precious Metals said buyers in China were still snapping up smaller bars and coins despite “record prices.” 4
Elsewhere in precious metals, silver vaulted above $100 an ounce, leaving it up 5.1% at about $101. StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell said silver was “in the midst of a self-propelled frenzy,” while BofA strategist Michael Widmer pegged a “fundamentally justified” price near $60 — a reminder that price can run far ahead of demand. 5
The path has not been straight. Earlier this week, gold trimmed gains after President Donald Trump backed down from some tariff threats linked to Greenland, sparking a rebound in equities; “it doesn’t revert the trend at all,” RJO Futures strategist Bob Haberkorn said. That session also drew attention to a U.S. Supreme Court case seen as testing the Federal Reserve’s independence, after justices signalled scepticism toward Trump’s bid to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. 6
But the risks are obvious. Gold is expensive by any recent yardstick, and the trade is crowded. A calmer geopolitical tape, or a rebound in the dollar and bond yields, could still trigger abrupt profit-taking.
Next week brings a thick calendar: major U.S. tech earnings and rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada are on investors’ screens, while the Fed’s first policy meeting of the year runs Jan. 27-28. For bullion, the market is watching whether policymakers lean into rate cuts or push back — and what that means for real yields, the inflation-adjusted return on bonds. 7
