NEW YORK, Jan 24, 2026, 05:07 EST — Market closed
- Shares of Alaska Air Group climbed 4.1% to close at $50.87 on Friday
- The airline projected a Q1 loss larger than anticipated and outlined a wide profit range for 2026
- Investors are eyeing early-January booking trends, fuel price shifts on the West Coast, and key milestones in Hawaiian integration
Shares of Alaska Air Group jumped 4.1% on Friday, closing at $50.87. The carrier beat profit estimates for the quarter and outlined a broad 2026 forecast that highlighted fuel expenses and demand trends.
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, all eyes Monday will be on whether Alaska’s early-January demand surge can hold up against a cautious outlook for the first quarter, which management attributes to seasonality and a volatile cost environment.
Alaska expects a first-quarter adjusted loss between 50 cents and $1.50 per share, while projecting full-year earnings from $3.50 to $6.50 per share. The midpoint falls short of analysts’ average estimate of $5.54, based on LSEG data cited by Reuters. CFO Shane Tackett described the forecast as conservative, citing last year’s volatility, but added, “If things look for the full year like they look today, we could achieve the high end of the range.” 1
Alaska reported fourth-quarter earnings of 18 cents per share, with adjusted earnings hitting 43 cents, according to an SEC filing. Revenue came in at $3.6 billion. The company noted that revenue per available seat mile (RASM) edged up 0.6% compared to a year ago. Premium, cargo, and loyalty revenues outpaced overall system revenue growth. 2
The latest figures thrust the Hawaiian Airlines integration into focus again. Alaska’s earnings report highlighted two key milestones as “complete”: a merged loyalty program and a unified operating certificate. The switch to a single passenger service system is scheduled for Q2 2026, with the operational cutover set for April. 3
Business travel remains a key driver. Alaska’s chief commercial officer, Andrew Harrison, noted on Friday’s call that “forward-looking business bookings for 2026 are also very encouraging.” He highlighted growing corporate demand fueled by the airline’s expanding international routes, including upcoming spring service to London and Rome. 4
The near-term outlook remains unsettled. First-quarter schedules were mostly sold off ahead of the January rebound, capping potential gains even if last-minute demand holds steady. The company also continues to face risks tied to West Coast fuel refining margins — a concern management has emphasized repeatedly.
The risk is straightforward: should fuel prices surge or demand fail to hold, that broad guidance range might shift from cautious to concerning. Integration efforts are still underway, and any missteps can quickly hit costs and reliability — exactly what investors punish in airline shares.
Monday’s open will put Friday’s relief rally to the test. After that, the next major event is Alaska’s April 2026 operational cutover for Hawaiian flying, along with the planned switch to a single passenger-service system in Q2 — both key milestones the company says will transform the merged operation.
