New York, Jan 26, 2026, 06:43 EST — Premarket
- RBOB gasoline futures slipped roughly 0.4% in early trading, following oil’s more stable movement.
- Winter storm Fern is causing disruptions to U.S. energy production and may continue to complicate fuel logistics through Monday.
- U.S. gasoline inventories rose in the latest weekly report, even as pump prices edged up.
U.S. wholesale gasoline prices dipped Monday morning, with NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures slipping around 0.7 cents to near $1.862 a gallon. 1
The timing is crucial for traders since storms can quickly disrupt fuel supply chains — refineries cut back, trucks get stuck, terminals freeze up — and wholesale price shifts often take time to show up at the pump. The coming days will also reveal just how much geopolitical risk is baked into crude, and by extension, gasoline.
There’s still some buffer in the system. U.S. motor gasoline stocks hit 256.99 million barrels for the week ending Jan. 16, rising by almost 6 million barrels compared to the previous week, according to government figures. 2
Crude prices held steady after last week’s surge, leaving gasoline without a clear trend. Early trading showed Brent near $65.95 a barrel, while U.S. WTI hovered around $61.10. The market remained focused on supply disruptions and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, noted, “Winter storm Fern struck the U.S. coast, forcing shut-ins in major crude and natural gas producing regions.” 3
The storm throws a curveball at fuel traders. Energy Aspects analysts put crude shut-ins near 300,000 barrels per day. Gasoline demand is expected to drop as folks stay indoors, while diesel prices hold steady thanks to heating and power use. “There is the potential for a surge in distillate demand,” said seasoned oil analyst Tom Kloza. TACenergy, a fuel distributor, warned that Colonial Pipeline’s delivery hubs might get buried in ice and snow, dragging some gasoline shipping prices into negative territory amid slumping demand at those points. 4
Retail prices nudged higher, but only slightly. AAA reported the national average for regular gasoline at $2.881 per gallon on Jan. 26, rising 1.7 cents from the day before and about 5.6 cents compared to a week ago. That’s still nearly 24 cents cheaper than the same time last year. 5
RBOB, the U.S. wholesale gasoline benchmark on CME’s NYMEX, is priced in dollars and cents per gallon. Each futures contract represents 42,000 gallons. 6
Traders will be eyeing refining margins, known as the gasoline “crack spread”—the difference between gasoline and crude prices—for signs of whether refiners can keep up heavy runs through the cold without hitting operational snags.
But this can falter in two ways. If the storm mainly crushes demand while key refineries keep running, the market could remain soft despite the buzz; inventories are already too high to fuel rallies. On the other hand, if pipelines, terminals, or refineries actually shut down, prices can spike sharply—especially in certain regions.
The Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report is set for Wednesday, Jan. 28. Headline tables usually drop after 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Traders will focus on fresh data for gasoline inventories, refinery throughput, and demand trends following the storm. 7
