New York, Jan 26, 2026, 20:08 EST — Market closed
- Shares of Capital One climbed Monday ahead of the Fed’s Jan. 27-28 meeting.
- Traders remain focused on the cost and execution risks tied to Capital One’s upcoming acquisition of Brex
- Lingering Washington chatter on credit-card pricing continues to weigh on lenders reliant on card business
Shares of Capital One Financial Corp ended Monday about 1.3% higher, closing at $220.18. The lender saw a relatively steady finish ahead of Tuesday’s session. With markets closed Monday, all eyes now turn to a busy week ahead packed with policy risks.
This is crucial since Capital One’s stock has been reacting to two factors simultaneously: its expansion costs and potential regulatory moves from Washington affecting credit card profits. Either can impact earnings more quickly than a single quarter’s loan growth.
The broader market got a boost Monday. The S&P 500 climbed 0.5%, while the Dow gained 0.6%. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, noted investors remain cautiously optimistic, likely gearing up for earnings season. 1
COF traded between $216.61 and $222.10 during the session. Volume hit about 7.3 million shares, topping its 50-day average of roughly 4.5 million, according to MarketWatch data. The stock outperformed JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Visa, though it remains about 15% below its 52-week peak of $259.64 reached on Jan. 6. 2
Capital One agreed last week to acquire Brex for $5.15 billion, with the deal split roughly half in cash and half in stock. The company expects the transaction to close by mid-2026, and confirmed Brex CEO and co-founder Pedro Franceschi will remain at the helm. On the same earnings call, Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank cautioned that a proposed one-year cap on credit-card interest rates at 10% could backfire. “We feel strongly that a cap on interest rates would catalyze a number of unintended consequences,” he said. The bank also reported a sharp 54% jump in fourth-quarter net interest income to $12.47 billion—this figure represents the spread between what it earns on loans and pays on deposits. Net income available to common shareholders rose to $2.06 billion. 3
Barclays analyst Terry Ma held firm on an “Overweight” rating Monday but trimmed his price target to $287 from $294, per GuruFocus. 4
For traders, the immediate math is straightforward—and not pretty: issuing more stock and pulling out cash can dilute earnings at first and curb share buybacks. That’s why expense figures and the timing of integration often carry more weight than a single positive day for the index.
The upside scenario hinges on several factors. A rate cap could tighten credit-card yields, while a softer consumer might drive charge-offs higher. Plus, any slip in integrating Brex would hit costs before it affects revenue.
The Federal Reserve is set to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% this week. However, the session is under the spotlight due to growing political pressure on the central bank and a Justice Department probe into Chair Jerome Powell, according to Reuters. 5
The Fed’s policy statement will drop at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, followed by Powell’s remarks at 2:30 p.m., per the central bank’s calendar. The meeting spans two days, Jan. 27-28. 6
Ahead of Tuesday’s Jan. 27 open, investors will be eyeing whether financials continue pushing higher alongside the broader market or pull back as rates and Washington news weigh in again. For Capital One, new info on spending plans, Brex integration, or regulatory timelines could prove more impactful than another quiet day of index movement.
COF’s next big event is Wednesday’s Fed decision and Powell’s press conference. After that, attention shifts back to the politics around card-rate caps and the details of Capital One’s Brex deal.
