London, Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 GMT — Regular session
- Brent and WTI nudged up following a U.S. winter storm that disrupted production and refinery operations
- Kazakhstan’s supply and the OPEC+ policy meeting set for Feb. 1 capped gains.
- Traders kept an eye on U.S. inventory reports, shifting weather forecasts, and escalating tensions in the Middle East
Oil prices edged up Tuesday after a severe winter storm disrupted U.S. crude output and shook refinery operations, tightening supply in the short term.
Brent crude futures climbed 23 cents, or 0.35%, settling at $65.82 a barrel by 1017 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added 29 cents, or 0.48%, reaching $60.92. Traders estimate that weekend U.S. shutdowns could total as much as 2 million barrels per day (bpd), about 15% of the country’s output.
The storm is a concern now, hitting right during peak winter demand and capable of shaking up weekly inventory numbers fast. “Fuel supply disruption” is the key risk, Daniel Hynes, an analyst at ANZ, noted, as freezing conditions spread through production, pipelines, and refineries.
The move came after a weaker finish on Monday, with Brent dropping 29 cents to $65.59 and WTI sliding 44 cents to $60.63. Despite that, both contracts logged weekly gains of roughly 2.7% on Friday, marking their best close since Jan. 14.
Energy Aspects pegged outages at their highest on Saturday, with the Permian Basin accounting for roughly 1.5 million bpd. By Monday, shut-ins had dropped to about 700,000 bpd, and the consultancy expects full output recovery by Jan. 30.
Supply increases in other areas capped the rally. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry announced plans to restart output at its largest oilfield, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) confirmed full loading capacity had resumed at its Black Sea terminal following maintenance on a mooring point.
Industry sources reported that volumes from Kazakhstan remain low, with a force majeure on CPC Blend exports still active — a clause enabling sellers to stop deliveries when uncontrollable events interrupt operations.
Trading was also influenced by refined products. Heating oil surged recently due to a cold-weather demand spike, prompting some traders to cash in, said PVM’s Tamas Varga.
Geopolitics remained part of the picture, though not the main force. Two U.S. officials told Reuters that a U.S. aircraft carrier along with several warships had reached the Middle East, expanding President Donald Trump’s options to protect U.S. forces or possibly take action against Iran.
“All in all, crude remains in a holding type trade pattern” until Washington’s approach to Iran becomes clearer, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. He also pointed to ongoing Ukraine-Russia-U.S. peace talks and signals from OPEC+ as key pressures on prices.
Eight OPEC+ members—the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia—are set to maintain their March output freeze, delegates told Reuters ahead of the Feb. 1 meeting.
U.S. shale stands as the swing supply outside the group, but it won’t come cheap. Jarand Rystad, CEO of Rystad Energy, warned that shale output could drop by up to 400,000 bpd in 2026 if crude slips to $40 and OPEC pushes to reclaim market share. A Reuters survey from December, however, projects WTI to average $58.15 a barrel that year.
The storm-driven rally might lose steam fast if U.S. production rebounds as expected and Kazakhstan resumes exports, shifting attention back to a supply glut. China’s purchases have also reacted to price shifts — stocking up on cheap crude, then pulling back when prices climb — a trend that could limit any sustained gains if it continues.
Traders will next focus on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report, set for release after 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. This will be the first clear gauge of how the freeze is impacting crude inventories and fuel supplies.
After that, the Feb. 1 OPEC+ meeting stands out, along with any new developments between Washington and Tehran.
