New York, Jan 28, 2026, 06:56 (EST) — Premarket
- RBOB gasoline futures climbed roughly 0.4% in early trading, staying close to their late-January peak.
- AAA reported the U.S. national average gas price at $2.879 per gallon on Wednesday.
- Traders await U.S. government inventory data set for release Wednesday.
U.S. gasoline futures nudged up Wednesday morning, with March RBOB — the key U.S. gasoline blendstock contract — rising 0.7 cents to $1.8897 a gallon as of 06:56 a.m. EST. During the session, prices fluctuated from $1.8791 to $1.9048. (Investing)
This matters as retail gas prices began climbing again in late January. On Wednesday, AAA reported the U.S. national average for regular gasoline at $2.879 per gallon, roughly 5 cents higher than a week earlier, though it remains far below last year’s figures. (AAA Fuel Prices)
EIA’s latest weekly report put regular gasoline at $2.853 a gallon for the week ending Jan. 26, rising 4.7 cents from the previous week. Meanwhile, on-highway diesel edged up to $3.624. These retail prices are inclusive of taxes. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
RBOB operates as a wholesale market. Futures usually move first when refiners dial back production or pipelines clog, with retail prices at the pump adjusting later—assuming the disruption sticks around.
Fuel traders are pricing in weather-related risks after a winter storm disrupted U.S. energy infrastructure, cutting production and snarling exports from the Gulf Coast. Estimates from analysts and traders put losses at up to 2 million barrels per day (bpd), roughly 15% of U.S. output. Brent and U.S. crude prices closed about 3% higher on Tuesday, Reuters reported. City Index’s Fawad Razaqzada noted “short-term risks tilted to the upside,” while PVM’s Tamas Varga highlighted “significant drawdowns in oil stocks.” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed to Tengiz outages as a factor “keeping the oil market tighter.” Meanwhile, Vortexa’s Samantha Santa Maria-Hartke said export flows were running “above seasonal norms” once ports reopened. (Reuters)
Refinery activity remains the key driver behind gasoline supply shifts. On the U.S. Gulf Coast, which accounts for roughly half of the country’s refining output, Exxon Mobil announced it was shutting down units at its Baytown, Texas petrochemical complex due to freezing weather. At the same time, Citgo encountered a malfunction causing flaring at its Corpus Christi refinery. (Reuters)
The dollar’s recent weakness has boosted energy prices. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said officials effectively handed traders “carte blanche to sell the dollar,” which “threw gasoline on the fire.” (Reuters)
Gasoline’s rally could reverse fast if cold-weather issues ease and refinery output steadies, or if demand drops once the storm moves on. Futures would also face pressure from a larger-than-expected rise in government gasoline inventories, especially after gains seen in late January.
The next trigger comes with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, due out shortly after 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. This report will provide the market’s first official update on crude and product inventories following the storm. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
