NEW YORK, Jan 28, 2026, 06:59 EST — Premarket
- U.S. Henry Hub natural gas for February slipped roughly 8%, trading near $6.40 per mmBtu in early deals.
- Prices have surged sharply this week, driven by a winter storm that tightened supply and boosted heating demand.
- Traders eye the February contract expiry alongside Thursday’s U.S. storage report.
U.S. natural gas prices dipped once more on Wednesday. The February Henry Hub contract slid roughly 8%, hovering near $6.40 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in early trading. This pullback followed a storm-fueled rally earlier in the week that sparked a fresh wave of profit-taking. (Barchart)
The whiplash matters because gas sets the marginal cost of heating and a big slice of U.S. power generation, and price spikes can feed quickly into regional electricity and household bills. It also matters offshore now: the United States ships large volumes as liquefied natural gas, so any domestic squeeze can ricochet into Europe and Asia.
This week’s rally stemmed from supply disruptions as extreme cold battered major production areas, straining pipelines and processing facilities. Rystad Energy pegged peak U.S. natural gas output losses at about 20 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), according to Reuters; “bcfd” is a standard flow unit in the industry. (Reuters)
The February contract jumped 2.3% to close at $6.954 per mmBtu on Tuesday, bouncing back after a sharp drop in thin, volatile trading, Bloomberg reported. Meanwhile, the March contract, which sees heavier volume, fell roughly 2% to $3.82, highlighting the market’s struggle to factor in near-term cold risk as the February contract nears expiration. (Bloomberg)
“Freeze-offs”—where water and equipment freeze up, forcing wells or gathering systems offline—have played a major role. Wood Mackenzie reported freeze-offs peaked at 17 billion cubic feet (BCF) on Jan. 25. Current impacts stand at about 13.5 bcfd, with Lower 48 production around 95.8 bcfd. The firm described this event as “much more intense and shorter-lived” than last year’s. (Wood Mackenzie)
Export signals have also been erratic. According to ship-tracking firm Vortexa, crude oil and LNG shipments from U.S. Gulf Coast ports hit zero on Sunday but bounced back on Monday. “Port closures … reduced exports,” said Vortexa’s Samantha Santa Maria-Hartke. (Reuters)
The cold snap has highlighted just how connected gas markets are. Reuters noted earlier this week that U.S. demand was set to soar far beyond usual January figures, while Europe’s TTF benchmark spiked sharply amid tightening LNG supplies. (Reuters)
Looking further down the curve, the market continues to price in a sharp drop in weather risk. CME data indicated the March Henry Hub contract was around $3.60 early Wednesday, slipping about 6%. That discount has grown as February approaches its last settlement. (CME Group)
This isn’t a one-way bet. Another cold snap before winter wraps up — or extended freeze-offs and processing hiccups — could push the front of the curve higher once more, especially as storage withdrawals and pipeline “deliverability” limits tighten amid peak demand.
Traders are zeroed in on the February contract’s final settlement and the switch to March as the front-month. After that, all eyes shift to Thursday’s U.S. weekly storage report, set for Jan. 29, which will reveal the withdrawal size and offer clues on how much storm-driven demand came from storage draws versus production shut-ins. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Then comes the usual trio: weather model runs, pipeline nominations, and LNG feedgas flows. These have been steering the market every hour. The upcoming forecast update—not the final one—will shape the tone through the rest of the week.
