New York, Jan 29, 2026, 10:52 (EST) — Regular session
- Shares fell roughly 1.3% in morning trading, adding to a volatile week following earnings and guidance.
- Company warned that Winter Storm Fern caused a $150–$200 million revenue shortfall in the first quarter
- Investors are focusing on updates about operational recovery and the Feb. 6 U.S. jobs report for clues on demand
Shares of American Airlines Group Inc slipped roughly 1.3% to $13.26 Thursday morning. Investors balanced the airline’s upbeat full-year profit forecast against immediate expenses from Winter Storm Fern disruptions.
The recent shifts are crucial for airlines as the market seeks clarity on demand once weather disruptions pass. For American, the key issue is whether a focus on premium services can deliver more consistent earnings despite its hefty debt burden.
Management has now given a fresh estimate on the storm’s hit to near-term results, forcing traders to weigh operational and profit stories simultaneously. CFO Devon May described the impact as “greater than any storm in the history of our company.” The firm projects full-year 2026 adjusted earnings between $1.70 and $2.70 per share. That midpoint sits above the average analyst forecast, according to LSEG data. 1
American reported a record $14.0 billion in fourth-quarter revenue and a full-year high of $54.6 billion, despite losing about $325 million in revenue due to a government shutdown. The airline posted a GAAP net income of $99 million for the quarter, with adjusted earnings of $0.16 per share, excluding special items. 2
The airline reported a rebound in bookings in January following a weaker year-end, with “revenue intakes” — cash from bookings — rising by double digits in the first three weeks of 2026. The boost came mainly from premium cabins and corporate channels. 3
American signaled in its earnings presentation that it forecasts over $2 billion in free cash flow for 2026 and aims to receive 55 new planes this year. Capital expenditures are projected between $4.0 billion and $4.5 billion. The airline also confirmed its goal of cutting total debt to under $35 billion by 2026. 4
The storm has become a real stress test for the carrier’s recovery efforts. Unions report some crews endured hours-long delays for assistance and had trouble finding hotel rooms after cancellations spread staff thin. Meanwhile, American Airlines offered extra-pay incentives to fill open trips as it struggled to get schedules back on track. 5
American reported that Winter Storm Fern has caused over 9,000 flight cancellations to date, leading to a $150–$200 million revenue hit baked into its first-quarter outlook. The airline also trimmed its planned capacity slightly and forecasted a rise in unit costs based on the industry’s “CASM-ex” metric, which excludes fuel and select expenses. 6
Outcomes from this point vary widely. Should the recovery slow, costs and customer disruption might stretch into February, potentially shifting the storm estimate. If demand for premiums drops or corporate travel falters, the company’s 2026 targets could come into question.
Investors are now eyeing whether American has returned to near-normal operations following the storm, along with broader demand signals. The U.S. Labor Department plans to release its Employment Situation report for January 2026 on Feb. 6. 7
