New York, January 29, 2026, 12:48 EST — Regular session.
- Royal Caribbean shares leap after upbeat 2026 forecast and robust early Wave-season bookings
- Company reports that roughly two-thirds of its 2026 capacity is locked in at record prices
- Cruise rivals climb on investor attention to pricing, fuel costs, and the upcoming booking season
Shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd jumped roughly 14% by midday Thursday, boosted by the company’s 2026 earnings forecast, which highlighted robust early bookings during the crucial winter sales period.
This shift is significant since cruise lines set prices for a big portion of next year’s voyages during “Wave season,” the January-to-March window when they roll out promotions and secure bookings. A robust Wave season often shapes ticket prices and onboard revenue long before ships even sail.
Investors remain on edge, probing consumer-focused stocks for signs of weakness. Cruise demand has so far outperformed expectations, yet the sector continues to behave like discretionary travel — swiftly pricing in any suggestion that rising costs are deterring buyers.
Royal Caribbean projects adjusted earnings per share of $17.70 to $18.10 for 2026, with Q1 estimates ranging from $3.18 to $3.28. CEO Jason Liberty described “WAVE” as “off to a great start.” CFO Naftali Holtz highlighted continued strength in guest spending. The cruise line reported that roughly two-thirds of 2026 capacity is already booked at record rates. It also forecast full-year fuel costs at $1.173 billion, noting that 60% of its expected 2026 fuel use is hedged. (PR Newswire)
Cruise competitors climbed with Royal Caribbean, as Norwegian Cruise Line gained roughly 9% and Carnival rose about 7% in early trading. Investors took the update as a clear signal that pricing power remains intact. Royal Caribbean’s 2026 profit forecast exceeded the average analyst estimate tracked by LSEG, Reuters reported. (Reuters)
The term “adjusted” results can muddy the waters. Simply put, Royal Caribbean is signaling it expects earnings to rise again in 2026, following a solid 2025. The company is counting on higher prices and increased spending per passenger day to counteract rising costs.
The path isn’t straightforward. Fuel costs still swing the needle for cruise operators, and demand can shift rapidly if travel budgets shrink or if discounts ramp up late in the booking window. Any softer-than-expected Wave season is likely to hit prices first, rather than occupancy in the short term.
The bigger story remains rates and growth. On January 28, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Since then, traders have been adjusting their forecasts for the timing of rate cuts — a dynamic that can sway travel stocks by impacting borrowing costs and consumer confidence. (Reuters)
Investors will turn their attention to the U.S. employment report set for February 6, searching for insights into labor market conditions and the consumer spending that drives major leisure purchases. (Bls)
