New York, Jan 29, 2026, 15:32 (ET) — Regular session
- Capital One shares creep up roughly 0.2% in afternoon trading, hovering around $219
- With the Fed on hold, traders now eye the next rate cut for later in 2026, leaving card lenders’ borrowing costs under the microscope
- Payment stocks surge on earnings news; Visa reports after the bell, American Express follows Friday morning
Shares of Capital One Financial Corporation edged up roughly 0.2% to $218.76 in afternoon trading Thursday. The stock fluctuated between $217.44 and $223.00, with around 2.3 million shares changing hands.
The change may be minor, but the stakes aren’t. Capital One’s heavy reliance on credit cards means the interest rate trajectory hits on two fronts: earnings from balances and the speed at which borrowers feel the pinch as borrowing costs stay high.
Card sector earnings came back into focus with Mastercard topping fourth-quarter profit forecasts. The company also announced plans to cut roughly 4% of its staff. CEO Michael Miebach told analysts these cuts would involve “reductions” in certain roles, alongside a tighter focus on other areas. 1
The Federal Reserve’s move also weighs heavily. On Wednesday, the central bank kept rates unchanged, with interest-rate futures signaling June as the probable month for the next cut, according to Reuters. “Inflation is a bit sticky, and the Fed was right to stand pat,” said Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion. 2
Shares of Capital One dropped 1.39% Tuesday, still sitting roughly 16% under its 52-week peak of $259.64, reached back on Jan. 6. 3
Mastercard climbed roughly 3.9% on Thursday in the wider card sector. Visa added about 1.6%, and American Express inched up 0.6%. Capital One held steady around $219.
Company-specific headlines continue to grab attention. Last week, Capital One announced it would acquire fintech Brex for $5.15 billion in a mix of cash and stock. The bank also reported a 54% jump in net interest income — the difference between earnings on loans and costs on deposits — reaching $12.47 billion. Net income available to common shareholders stood at $2.06 billion, or $3.26 per share. 4
After that selloff, the stock became far more sensitive to external factors, particularly interest rates. With investors still weighing the benefits of a major acquisition, even small shifts can sway the tape.
There’s a risk looming out of Washington. Trump has proposed capping credit card interest rates at 10% for one year. Industry insiders warn this could severely hurt lender profits and rewards programs. “That’s a huge chunk of profit that has just disappeared,” said BK Associates managing director Pooja Gardemal. Still, Barclays managing director Michael Miller called it an “unlikely outcome” that the idea will gain traction. 5
The other key uncertainty is straightforward: the consumer. When missed payments climb, lenders often respond by tightening credit fast, usually slowing growth well before it shows up in the headlines.
Traders continue to watch closely for signals from payments and premium card issuers about spending and borrowing trends. While rates remain the big-picture focus, earnings reports are what move the market day to day.
Visa will release its earnings after Thursday’s close, with American Express scheduled to hold its quarterly call at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. 6
