LONDON, January 30, 2026, 11:53 GMT — Regular session
Oil prices dropped nearly 1% on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at the possibility of talks with Iran on its nuclear program, easing immediate concerns about a U.S. strike disrupting supply. By 0958 GMT, Brent crude futures had slipped 68 cents to $70.03 a barrel. The March contract, nearing expiration, gave way to the April contract, which fell 80 cents to $68.79. U.S. WTI also dropped 72 cents, settling at $64.70. “President Trump’s willingness to give diplomacy a chance regarding Iran seemingly makes a U.S. military intervention less likely than yesterday,” said PVM Oil Associate analyst Tamas Varga, who cited profit-taking and a stronger dollar as additional factors. 1
Crude prices dipped after soaring to five-month highs the day before, driven by traders piling on a “risk premium” amid fears Washington might target Iran. On Thursday, Brent finished up $2.31 at $70.71, while WTI climbed $2.21 to $65.42. That surge pushed both benchmarks into technically overbought territory, signaling a sharp upward move. “The immediate (market) concern … is … it closes the Strait of Hormuz to the 20 million barrels per day of oil that navigates it,” said PVM analyst John Evans. 2
Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting could be crucial. Five delegates told Reuters the group will likely hold off on boosting output in March, despite Brent crude climbing above $70 this week. The cartel had already bumped production quotas by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day from April through December 2025. But they then hit pause on further increases for January to March 2026, citing typically weaker seasonal demand, the delegates said. 3
Supply is still choppy. About 500,000 barrels per day of U.S. crude production stayed offline Thursday after an Arctic blast and winter storm, according to consultancy Energy Aspects. That’s down from a peak outage near 2 million bpd over the weekend. U.S. crude exports averaged 3.2 million bpd over the past three days following a Sunday shutdown, Kpler’s Matt Smith noted. Valero COO Gary Simmons added that wholesale liftings “remained soft this week, but gradually recovering.” 4
Behind the headlines, forecasters keep pointing to oversupply. A Reuters poll of 31 economists and analysts put Brent at an average of $62.02 a barrel in 2026, with U.S. crude at $58.72. They expect a surplus ranging from 0.75 million to 3.5 million barrels per day. Julius Baer’s Norbert Ruecker noted, “The oil market appears to be in a lasting surplus,” while Hamburg Commercial Bank’s Cyrus De La Rubia said OPEC+ will “defend a price floor” as it monitors market share. 5
Bulls face the risk that the market will slip back into the $60-to-$80 range it’s occupied for much of the past two years. Reuters columnist Ron Bousso pointed out that Brent crude, despite climbing about 15% this month, remains stuck within that band. He also flagged an International Energy Agency forecast predicting a 3.7 million bpd oversupply in 2026. Meanwhile, the CBOE crude oil volatility index, which gauges expected price swings via options, surged from 30 at the start of the year to over 50 on Thursday — signaling jitters rather than a supply crunch. 6
Energy investors are closely tracking company comments on rising geopolitical risks and changing policies toward Venezuela. On Friday, Chevron beat fourth-quarter earnings estimates with adjusted profits of $1.52 per share. CEO Mike Wirth highlighted Venezuela’s “significant long-term potential.” CFO Eimear Bonner added that Chevron currently produces around 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent daily in Venezuela and could boost that by 50% within 18 to 24 months—pending further U.S. government approvals—following Washington’s recent easing of some sanctions on Thursday. 7
Coming next: Brent’s March contract expires Friday, with the OPEC+ meeting set for Sunday. Traders remain keyed into every new move from Washington and Tehran, treating each as a fresh factor in oil pricing.
