London, January 30, 2026, 11:50 GMT — Regular session
- Brent’s March contract dropped close to 1% after the U.S. hinted at a possible dialogue with Iran
- After climbing to a five-month peak on Thursday, WTI pulled back following a three-day rally
- Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting and upcoming U.S. inventory figures are drawing traders’ focus for new cues
Oil prices dropped Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at possible talks with Iran, easing concerns over a sudden supply disruption from a military strike. By 0958 GMT, Brent crude futures for March, set to expire later that day, dipped 68 cents—nearly 1%—to $70.03 a barrel. The more actively traded April contract slid 80 cents, or 1.15%, landing at $68.79. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 72 cents, or 1.1%, to $64.70.
Oil slipped back after surging over 3% the previous day to its highest settlement in five months, driven by fears a U.S. strike on Iran might disrupt supplies. “The immediate (market) concern … is the collateral damage done if Iran … closes the Strait of Hormuz to the 20 million barrels per day of oil that navigates it,” said PVM analyst John Evans. Reuters
The Iran risk premium is now colliding with an OPEC+ policy move. The group — OPEC plus Russia and allies — is expected to hold off on boosting output for March, according to five delegates speaking to Reuters ahead of Sunday’s meeting. They had lifted quotas by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day from April through December 2025, but decided to freeze any further hikes from January through March 2026, citing typically softer demand in that period.
Earlier this week, prices climbed on signs that U.S. supply was tightening. The Energy Information Administration showed crude inventories dropping 2.3 million barrels to 423.8 million in the week ending Jan. 23, defying forecasts in a Reuters poll that had predicted a 1.8 million-barrel increase. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo called it “a solid report” and expects the next update to reflect more impact from the cold snap. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, noted the market also stepped back on hopes for peace between Russia and Ukraine amid fresh talks of negotiations. Reuters
Supply disruptions in North America have started to ease. Energy Aspects estimated about 500,000 barrels per day of U.S. output remained offline on Thursday following an Arctic blast. Most of those outages were still concentrated in the Permian Basin, analyst Jesse Jones noted. Kpler’s Matt Smith said U.S. crude exports bounced back after the storm, averaging 3.2 million bpd over the last three days. Still, weekly export volumes remained below typical levels.
The dollar gained ground on Friday, pushing dollar-priced commodities higher and squeezing buyers using other currencies. Trump is set to announce his nominee for the next Fed chair today, with investors eager to gauge the policy direction. Reuters noted the dollar “clawed back” from this week’s four-year low. Reuters
The bigger threat for bulls might be that geopolitics alone won’t counterbalance a market many still see as oversupplied. A Reuters poll of 31 economists and analysts published Friday projects Brent crude to average $62.02 a barrel in 2026, with WTI at $58.72. They estimate a surplus ranging from 0.75 million to 3.5 million barrels per day. “Geopolitics brings lots of noise … (but) the oil market appears to be in a lasting surplus,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of economics & next generation research at Julius Baer. Reuters
Crude remains exposed to sudden pullbacks if the White House continues to change its stance on Tehran, or if production from Kazakhstan and the U.S. ramps up quicker than anticipated. The recent rally pushed some contracts into overbought levels this week, making them ripe for profit-taking once the news flow slows down.
Traders are gearing up for what could be another volatile weekend, with geopolitics and policy moves in focus. OPEC+ is set to meet Sunday, Feb. 1, while the EIA’s weekly report on U.S. crude inventories arrives next Wednesday — both key data points that could swiftly shift price forecasts.
