New York, Jan 30, 2026, 09:45 ET — Regular session
Tesla shares jumped 2% to $424.89 in early Friday trading, recovering part of Thursday’s 3.45% slide as investors reacted to new developments involving Elon Musk’s businesses. The stock had closed down sharply the day before. 1
Investors are zeroing in on capital expenditures, or capex — the cash poured into factories and equipment. Tesla aims to more than double its capex this year, pushing past $20 billion. The focus? Cybercab robotaxis, Optimus humanoid robots, and the production lines that support them. This comes after Tesla lost its global EV sales lead to China’s BYD. “The bigger story,” said REX Financial COO Scott Acheychek, “is the business model transition now underway.” 2
Why it matters now: Tesla is being valued less as a traditional automaker and more as a play on autonomy and AI. Meanwhile, investors have turned cautious on tech firms with heavy spending. U.S. futures dipped following President Donald Trump’s pick of ex-Fed official Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, sparking renewed talks about interest rates and growth stocks. 3
Reuters reported late Thursday that SpaceX is in talks to merge with xAI ahead of a planned public offering this year. Bloomberg adds that a merger with Tesla is also under consideration. Dennis Dick, chief market strategist at Stock Trader Network, noted, “Musk has too many separate companies,” suggesting consolidation might ease worries about the CEO stretching himself too thin. 4
Tesla’s latest update echoed familiar themes. The company announced a $2 billion investment in Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI and confirmed Cybercab production remains on schedule for this year. It also reported a roughly 3% drop in 2025 revenue to about $94.83 billion, alongside a record quarterly energy-and-storage revenue of $3.84 billion. “Tesla is entering a transition phase,” said Thomas Monteiro, senior analyst at Investing.com. 5
A recent securities filing revealed Tesla ended 2025 with $44.06 billion in cash and investments. The company projects capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion in 2026, fueled by AI computing, data centers, and expanded manufacturing and service operations. The filing also reported Tesla booked $430 million in revenue from xAI’s purchase of Megapack battery products in 2025. Tesla’s planned $2 billion investment in xAI remains conditional on closing requirements, including regulatory approvals. 6
The stock is shifting alongside the evolving scoreboard. Investors focus more on software take-rate, robotaxi miles, and factory timelines than on delivery numbers—and they’re demanding proof in quarterly reports, not in speeches.
The bill is climbing quickly, with some analysts cautioning that increased capex might tighten free cash flow until new ventures start contributing. Traders remain cautious, too, since the shift toward autonomy hinges on technical targets that have missed deadlines before, leaving the stock vulnerable to sudden swings. 7
Next in line: updates on Cybercab production and the robotaxi rollout, plus Tesla’s upcoming quarterly report, slated for late April. An earnings calendar points to an unconfirmed date of April 21, when investors will zero in on clearer capex guidance and autonomy figures. 8
