New York, Feb 3, 2026, 06:26 EST — Premarket
- Early Tuesday, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are holding steady in the low 6% range, while refinance rates have edged up.
- Swings in the bond market and a delay in U.S. labor data are making it tougher to gauge upcoming borrowing costs.
- Mortgage lenders and housing-related stocks led gains in the latest trading session.
U.S. mortgage rates ticked up today, with the national average for a 30-year fixed loan hitting 6.22%, and the APR at 6.29%, Bankrate reported. The average rate for 30-year refinancing stood at 6.49%, according to their data. (Bankrate)
Rates lingering in the low-6% territory continue to squeeze affordability for potential buyers, freezing many refinancing plans. Even a slight shift can alter qualification criteria, and lenders pay close attention since volume often comes in waves.
Mortgage rates are closely watched by investors since they’re tightly linked to the bond market’s core. These rates tend to track mortgage-backed securities—packages of home loans—whose prices fluctuate alongside longer-term yields and changing policy expectations.
Mortgage News Daily reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.17% on Monday, a 1 basis point rise from Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield stood near 4.29% late Monday. Some lenders saw only slight increases since the bond decline happened after they released their daily rate sheets. (Mortgage News Daily)
The partial government shutdown is now clouding a major bond market catalyst. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced January’s employment report will be postponed until funding returns. Other releases, like the December Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, face delays too. Economists caution that a lengthy shutdown could seriously impair the quality of vital data. (Reuters)
Data released surprised on the upside. The Institute for Supply Management reported its Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) climbed to 52.6 in January, up from 47.9 in December, signaling a return to factory expansion—anything above 50 indicates growth. Such strong beats often push yields higher and, after a delay, can influence mortgage rates. (Reuters)
Some housing economists expect rates to hover rather than fall sharply. “I anticipate the market will stay in a holding pattern in the near term,” said Anthony Kellum of Kellum Mortgage. Mike Fratantoni at the Mortgage Bankers Association added that the group forecasts rates to remain between 6% and 6.5% for the foreseeable future. (Bankrate)
Mortgage-linked stocks led Monday’s gains. Rocket Companies jumped 4.7% to $18.77, and UWM Holdings climbed 4.5% to $5.13. MGIC Investment edged up 2.3%, while Radian Group saw little movement.
Late Monday, Two Harbors Investment Corp released its quarterly results and announced an all-stock acquisition deal with UWMC, aiming to close in the second quarter. Bill Greenberg highlighted that the acquisition “doubles the size of the MSR portfolio,” referring to mortgage servicing rights — the fees from collecting borrower payments. Nick Letica, chief investment officer, added, “Our MSR portfolio performed as it was designed to do and earned its carry.” (TWO)
But the rate environment can shift quickly. If investors push for a bigger inflation premium, or the shutdown stretches out and disrupts economic data, mortgage bonds could slip sharply and lenders may raise rates fast.
Looking ahead, traders are focused on any moves to restore government funding and updates on the rescheduling of the postponed jobs report. The Federal Reserve’s next meeting is set for March 17-18. (Federalreserve)
