New York, Feb 3, 2026, 06:14 EST — Premarket
- March Henry Hub futures lingered around $3.22/mmBtu in early trading, following Monday’s sharp drop.
- The upward shift was fueled by warmer mid-February forecasts and a rebound in output; volatility remains high.
- Attention now turns to Thursday’s U.S. storage report and any new changes in LNG demand.
U.S. natural gas prices held close to $3.22 on Tuesday, following Monday’s sharp decline. The March Henry Hub contract slipped roughly 1.2 cents to $3.225 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in early trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The front-month contract plunged 25.7% on Monday, closing at $3.237—its steepest one-day drop since 1995 outside of contract rollover periods. The selloff followed a sharp warming in mid-February forecasts and a strong rebound in production after freeze-offs late last month. Commodity Weather Group slashed heating degree days by 26.3 in its latest update, a key gauge of heating demand, while output surged to 111.6 billion cubic feet per day—the highest level since January 20. “A far faster recovery than historic freeze-offs,” noted Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics Group, highlighting the Permian Basin. EnergyNow
The whipsaw drove 30-day close-to-close volatility — a measure of price swings — to 250.7%, marking a record high for the third day running, per LSEG data. In the cash market, Waha Hub in West Texas fell back into negative territory as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the basin. Meanwhile, Devon Energy and Coterra Energy announced a $58 billion all-stock merger, as shale producers continue to scale up.
LNG export demand remains a key swing factor. Exports dipped to 11.3 million metric tons in January from 11.5 million in December as a late-month freeze forced some plants to shut and cut output at others. Freeport LNG was partly offline, while Kinder Morgan’s Elba Island LNG halted feedgas intake and instead imported cargoes from Trinidad and Tobago, according to LSEG data. Europe accounted for 9.46 million tons — roughly 83% of total U.S. LNG exports. Benchmark prices in January favored European sales over Asian, with the European Title Transfer Facility in the Netherlands trading above the Japan Korea Marker, data showed.
Traders are shifting their focus to storage as the next key factor. The latest government data revealed working gas at 2,823 billion cubic feet for the week ending Jan. 23, following a 242-bcf withdrawal. Inventories remain 206 bcf higher than a year ago and 143 bcf above the five-year average. The next report is scheduled for Thursday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, the usual release time.
Gas-linked stocks took a hit. In premarket action, United States Natural Gas Fund plunged roughly 25%. EQT Corp slid about 5%, and Coterra dropped near 3.6%.
Pressure also mounted from a wider retreat in commodities, fueled by a firmer dollar. “A stronger U.S. dollar is also adding pressure on precious metals and other commodities, including oil and base metals,” said Vivek Dhar of Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noting investors are pulling back risk in several areas of the complex. Reuters
This market remains highly sensitive to weather forecasts. A chillier shift in the 10- to 15-day outlook, new freeze-offs in production areas, or a sudden decline in LNG feedgas demand could quickly tighten supply and trigger short-covering following the recent sell-off.
Traders are focused on updated mid-February forecasts and Thursday’s storage report for the week ending Jan. 30, while keeping an eye on any changes in production estimates and LNG flows.
