NEW YORK, Feb 5, 2026, 07:07 EST — Premarket
- March RBOB gasoline futures hovered near $1.96 a gallon in early trading, showing little movement
- AAA data showed the U.S. average price at the pump for regular hit $2.891 a gallon.
- EIA data reveal gasoline inventories hitting 257.9 million barrels, the largest since June 2020
U.S. gasoline prices stayed steady in early Thursday trading, reflecting a comfortable supply outlook. Crude oil, meanwhile, slipped amid signs that Washington and Tehran are still set to hold talks.
Why it matters now: gasoline demand dips seasonally in winter, allowing inventories to swell quickly. Once storage tanks hit capacity, it usually puts a ceiling on wholesale prices and squeezes the “crack” — the margin between crude oil and gasoline.
The market hasn’t been driven purely by fundamentals. Energy prices are swinging wildly on Middle East headlines, pushing gasoline prices up and down fast.
At 7:06 a.m. ET, reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending, or RBOB—the key U.S. gasoline futures contract—slipped 0.03% to $1.9647 a gallon.
The U.S. national average price for regular gasoline edged up to $2.891 per gallon, rising slightly from $2.887 the previous day, according to AAA’s tracker. It’s still down from $3.125 a year ago.
U.S. total gasoline inventories climbed to 257.9 million barrels for the week ending Jan. 30, hitting their highest point since June 2020, according to EIA data.
The weekly petroleum report revealed commercial crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, dropped by 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million. Distillate stocks also declined, falling 5.6 million to 127.4 million. According to the EIA, refineries operated at 90.5% capacity, with gasoline production averaging 9.0 million barrels per day.
Crude led the retreat overnight. Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped more than 1% as the U.S. and Iran geared up for talks in Oman on Friday, Reuters reported. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said all eyes were on the meeting, while PVM’s John Evans cautioned that “one untoward remark” could send Brent tumbling back toward $70. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-oil-prices-fall-ahead-us-iran-talks-2026-02-05/
Just a day before, ICIS director Ajay Parmar highlighted a “risk premium” that’s propping up prices beyond what fundamentals indicate, citing potential disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-extend-gains-fears-escalating-tensions-mideast-2026-02-04/
Gasoline-linked assets edged higher in premarket action. The United States Gasoline Fund gained around 1.6%, while refiners Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, and Valero climbed between roughly 2.6% and 4.5%.
Refiners are betting on the margin story. Phillips 66 told investors it can handle about 250,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude. CEO Mark Lashier said the company is “more heavily weighted” toward these opportunities compared to its peers. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/refiner-phillips-66-beats-quarterly-profit-estimates-margins-rebound-2026-02-04/
The downside risk for gasoline is clear: if crude continues to slide amid diplomatic progress and inventories grow, wholesale gasoline could drop fast. On the flip side, any outage, weather disruption, or a collapse in Friday’s talks could push prices sharply upward.
Friday brings the U.S.-Iran meeting, followed by the EIA’s weekly petroleum report on Feb. 11. That report will offer a key update on inventories and demand as March approaches.
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