Real estate stocks rise as rate-cut bets return; XLRE ends at $41.99 ahead of payrolls and CPI

Real estate stocks rise as rate-cut bets return; XLRE ends at $41.99 ahead of payrolls and CPI

New York, Feb 7, 2026, 13:37 EST — Market closed.

Real estate shares in the U.S. climbed on Friday; the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) advanced 1.8% to close at $41.99.

This group’s in focus lately because it tends to move with rates, more so than with headlines. REITs — real estate investment trusts holding properties that generate income — rely heavily on debt and distribute much of their cash flow, making them especially sensitive to shifts in borrowing costs that hit valuations directly.

Wall Street staged a sharp comeback. The Dow topped 50,000 for the first time ever, closing above that mark, while the S&P 500 surged almost 2%. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields wrapped up at 4.206%. CME FedWatch still pointed to June for the next Federal Reserve rate cut. “The selloff earlier in the week was getting a bit overdone to the downside,” said Dakota Wealth’s Robert Pavlik. 1

Vanguard’s Real Estate ETF (VNQ) picked up 1.6%, right in step with a 1.6% rise for iShares U.S. Real Estate (IYR). Prologis moved higher by 0.6%, but Realty Income slipped 0.2%.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly described the labor market as “precarious” and signaled she’s tilting toward more rate cuts, though the central bank kept rates steady last week at 3.50%-3.75%. Over at Capital Economics, senior U.S. economist Thomas Ryan argued the Fed won’t “jump to the conclusion” that fewer job openings mean real weakness. He pointed out the next jobs report remains significant. 2

But there are pockets of concern. Bank of America downgraded storage REITs Public Storage and Extra Space Storage and trimmed its price target for Americold, highlighting sluggish housing turnover and high borrowing costs. Mortgage rates are sitting close to 6%, and the 10-year yield is holding above 4%, both seen as obstacles to a rapid demand recovery. 3

XLRE follows the Real Estate Select Sector Index, focusing on S&P 500-listed real estate stocks but skipping over mortgage REITs. Top names in the fund: Welltower, Prologis, and American Tower. Public Storage ranks high on the list too. 4

But there’s still risk on the table. If fresh data sends yields climbing again, REITs can just as easily lose ground—particularly those landlords facing refinancing or depending on new transactions to maintain cash flow growth.

When U.S. trading picks up again Monday, investors will be watching a rejiggered economic release schedule. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to drop its postponed January jobs numbers on Feb 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET. January CPI follows on Feb 13. Both releases could shake up rate-cut bets and push around real estate stock prices that tend to move with yields. 5

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