NEW YORK, Feb 9, 2026, 06:48 EST — Premarket
- U.S. natural gas futures slid hard before the start of the main U.S. session.
- After storage took a hit from last week’s cold, traders are now reassessing heating demand projections for late February.
- Traders are watching for updated weather models and eyeing Thursday’s U.S. storage data.
U.S. natural gas prices slumped nearly 7% early Monday. The March NYMEX contract dropped 25.2 cents, trading near $3.17 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
The drop is significant, with traders still dealing with the aftermath of a sharp winter reversal. Late January’s cold snap squeezed supply, but now shifting weather models are dragging demand lower. Utilities and LNG-linked players? Lately, it’s those two-week temperature forecasts that have been steering the price action above all else.
LSEG reported average gas production in the Lower 48 hitting 106.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in February. Demand — factoring in exports — is set to slide from 159.5 bcfd this week to 141.4 bcfd next week, and then to 132.6 bcfd in two weeks. Meteorologists expect most of the U.S. to stay on the warmer side through Feb. 21, though the Northeast could hang onto colder temps for several days. LSEG also estimated average flows to the eight major U.S. LNG export facilities at 18.5 bcfd for the month.
It’s a bearish tilt for traders heading into late February, with supply staying strong, demand losing steam, and LNG prices hovering close to the upper end of their recent band. Sure, storage remains part of the conversation—but as the warmer forecast sticks, that angle is quickly losing its punch.
Commodity Weather Group is calling for warmer-than-usual conditions to stick around the Midwest and South through Feb. 20. Over in drilling, Baker Hughes reported that active U.S. natural gas rigs climbed by five last week, reaching 130—up to a level not seen in two and a half years and reinforcing the ongoing supply story.
The market’s still on edge. Any sudden cold snap or new hit to production could tighten things up fast this winter — and while the broader U.S. outlook has softened, the Northeast still isn’t in the clear.
The next key number for traders to watch is Thursday’s U.S. weekly storage report—essentially the market’s go-to gauge for shifts in inventory levels.
Looking to the week ahead, shifting weather forecasts could cause the biggest swings—up or down. The next flashpoint: Thursday’s storage report on Feb. 12. Traders are watching closely to see if withdrawals keep topping the usual pace as we get deeper into February.
