New York, Feb 13, 2026, 12:46 EST — Regular session.
Eli Lilly and Company shares edged up 0.6% to $1,044.62 by midday, having traded between $1,034.69 and $1,063.68 earlier.
Eli Lilly disclosed this week that it’s stockpiled $1.5 billion worth of orforglipron, its still-experimental oral weight-loss drug, as it waits on a possible FDA decision in April. That pre-launch inventory has nearly tripled from $550 million a year ago. With that number out, investors are zeroed in on a single issue: just how quickly, and at what scale, Lilly could bring an obesity pill to market if it gets the regulatory nod. 1
The size of the build is significant, as supply has consistently been the bottleneck for obesity drugs. “This earlier-than-normal inventory build is certainly much larger than normal,” Kevin Gade, chief operating officer at Bahl & Gaynor—which holds Lilly stock—told PharmaExec. 2
The race is heating up. Novo Nordisk revealed plans this week to offer Wegovy in vials, expanding beyond its existing injectable and oral options. “We are exploring various device presentations for Wegovy, including vials,” the company said. 3
Lilly’s annual report details its approach to such bets, stating it only capitalizes pre-launch inventory when it’s confident future commercialization is likely and economic benefits are expected. As of Dec. 31, 2025, capitalized pre-launch inventories totaled $1.5 billion—mainly tied to orforglipron.
The filing reveals Lilly is boosting shareholder returns while still investing heavily in capacity. The company bought back $4.1 billion of its stock in 2025, part of a $15 billion repurchase plan, leaving $10.9 billion unspent at year-end. For the first quarter of 2026, Lilly also lifted its quarterly dividend to $1.73 per share.
Lilly notched another regulatory green light in China, this time for mirikizumab in moderately-to-severely active Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis. The company says the approval expands its reach in the world’s No. 2 drug market. Clarivate, meanwhile, projects “considerable growth” ahead for China’s ulcerative colitis therapy market over the coming decade. 4
Trading was uneven. U.S. stocks edged lower Friday—S&P 500 slipped 0.06%, the Nasdaq fell 0.23% by late morning—dragged down by a tech retreat that overshadowed some relief from weaker U.S. inflation figures. “The trend in disinflation continues,” said Michael Metcalfe, head of market strategy at State Street Markets. 5
LLY stock faces a straightforward short-term risk: unless the FDA gives the green light, that inventory never becomes revenue—and if regulators push back or demand extra data, the clock stretches, increasing the likelihood of a painful write-down. According to Lilly’s own filings, the company only ramps up pre-launch inventory when it thinks approval looks probable. But in drug review, that call can flip fast. 6
The clock’s ticking for investors ahead of the FDA’s anticipated April ruling on orforglipron. Every hint counts—any sign the review might accelerate or drag out will get picked apart. 7
