NEW YORK, Feb 25, 2026, 03:05 EST
- Nvidia is set to report after the U.S. market close, with options pricing in a swing of roughly 4.8% either way.
- Investors are watching closely for new clues on data-center budgets from Big Tech and appetite for AI chips.
- AMD’s Meta deal—potentially worth as much as $60 billion—has thrown the competitive landscape straight into the spotlight.
Nvidia is set to release its quarterly numbers after the U.S. market shuts on Wednesday, with options traders betting on a big move. The current pricing suggests a swing of around 4.8% in either direction, which translates to nearly $226 billion, given Nvidia’s market cap of about $4.7 trillion. (Reuters)
The report has basically become Wall Street’s fastest way to gauge if the AI frenzy is holding up, thanks to Big Tech’s hefty bets on data centers, chips, and power. Analysts see profits climbing more than 62% for the quarter ended January, with revenue expected to leap over 68% to $66.16 billion, according to LSEG. Looking ahead, first-quarter revenue is pegged at roughly $72.46 billion. “People are so concerned about AI spending – whether we’re in a bubble,” said Ivana Delevska, chief investment officer at Spear Invest. For Nvidia, she says, the company has to prove those profits “are not really decelerating.” (Reuters)
Rivalry’s heating up. AMD just landed a deal to supply up to $60 billion in AI chips to Meta Platforms over the next five years—a contract that also hands Meta an option for up to a 10% stake in AMD. Nvidia shares dropped about 1% after the announcement. “Meta is locking in supply, diversifying away from a single vendor,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. Dan Coatsworth at AJ Bell pointed out that the return of circular deals “gives investors something else to worry about.” (Reuters)
What’s next for Nvidia? Most expect the focus will be on its guidance rather than last quarter’s results. “Nvidia remains central to the AI narrative,” said Lauren Goodwin, chief market strategist at New York Life Investments. She also noted the AI supply chain “remains supply-constrained.” (Business Insider)
Nvidia expects to release its results around 1:20 p.m. Pacific, then kick off a conference call at 2 p.m., following the close. Written commentary from the CFO is set to go live right after the numbers drop. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
Nvidia’s earnings drop just ahead of its annual GPU Technology Conference (GTC), the company’s main event for new products and customer announcements. According to Nvidia’s site, GTC 2026 is set for San Jose, California, March 16–19. (NVIDIA)
Plenty of bulls remain in the market. Stifel’s Ruben Roy, cited by Barron’s, kept his buy call on the stock, joined by JPMorgan and D.A. Davidson ahead of earnings. Still, all three flagged a pivot in demand toward “inference” chips—these power AI models after training is done. (Barron’s)
ASML, the company behind the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines powering cutting-edge chip production, is positioned to benefit from Europe’s spending cycle. Last month, Reuters flagged ASML as one of the names riding the wave of AI-fueled chipmaker capex recovery. (Reuters)
AMD and Meta say their deal spans as much as 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs, with the first gigawatt slated to ship in the back half of 2026. AMD chief Lisa Su described Meta’s AI ambitions as operating at “unprecedented scale.” Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, for his part, pointed to a drive to “diversify our compute.” (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.)
The story pivots awkwardly on inference: Nvidia’s dominance grew from training the big models, but now customers care about running them—fast and at lower cost. Nvidia’s pushing to show it can handle both sides of the job, while rivals chase after the same, all hoping to lock in users with their software ecosystems.
It boils down to an old story: even a strong quarter might not be enough if expectations keep shifting higher. Nvidia—and the broader AI trade riding its coattails—could take a hit on any whiff of weaker demand, supply constraints, or a guidance outlook that doesn’t show yet another leap forward.
For traders, Wednesday isn’t just about an earnings report. It’s a referendum, and its effects can stretch in one session, running from U.S. chipmakers all the way to suppliers in Europe.
