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ASX Week Ahead: Record-high ASX 200 faces GDP, trade tests as global oil risk hangs over markets
1 March 2026
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ASX Week Ahead: Record-high ASX 200 faces GDP, trade tests as global oil risk hangs over markets

Sydney, March 1, 2026, 18:10 AEDT — Market’s shut.

  • The ASX 200 wrapped up its latest session at a fresh record, settling at 9,198.6 points, a 0.25% gain.
  • On the local front, Australia’s lineup includes GDP, company profits, housing approvals, and trade figures.
  • Miners and rare earth stocks pushed higher late in the week, while supermarkets and certain retailers lost ground.

Australia’s benchmark share index is set to open Monday within striking distance of all-time highs. Investors are bracing for a slew of economic data that could shake up views on interest rates and growth after a choppy reporting season.

The S&P/ASX 200 ended Friday’s session 23.3 points higher at 9,198.6, a gain of 0.25%, with miners and rare earths stocks doing much of the heavy lifting.

The rally has squeezed the market’s cushion for disappointments. Missed earnings and discounts? Traders aren’t hesitating to hit back. Several heavyweight index names are out front, posting new highs and carrying more of the load.

Friday painted a mixed picture—Coles dropped following its earnings, Woolworths dipped too. Still, the main index managed to score a fresh record close.

Offshore signals remain hard to read. World stocks slipped late last week, with investors weighing stretched valuations and questioning how much AI innovations might actually lift earnings. Oil prices, on the other hand, found some support as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions resurfaced.

Late in the week, Block shares surged following its earnings release. Bapcor, on the other hand, tumbled after announcing a discounted capital raise and facing a round of downgrades. Coles slid as sales growth slowed, with analysts blaming increased pressure from Woolworths.

“The ASX 200 touched a new record, reaching 9202.9,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore, who cited a robust February earnings season as the main driver. U.S. markets, meanwhile, stayed volatile ahead of Nvidia’s results. https://www.ig.com/au/news-and-trade-ideas…

Monday brings the ABS business indicators, with company gross operating profits and inventories in focus. Both data points influence GDP forecasts—and a big surprise has a tendency to jolt banks and cyclicals.

Building approvals drop Tuesday, putting housing in focus. This early gauge of construction can jolt building materials, developers, and lenders.

Wednesday brings the quarterly national accounts—watch for the GDP number, which tracks economic output across the board. If the data comes in below expectations, chatter will pick up about policy finally having an impact. A stronger result? That would likely quiet those concerns.

Thursday brings trade figures. A swing in the goods balance often rattles expectations for resource company profits and the Australian dollar—bulk commodity shipments tend to be the wild card.

The quarterly balance of payments, covering the current account and detailing the movement of goods, services, and income into and out of Australia, is also slated for release this week.

The outlook isn’t smooth. An oil shock stands out as the main threat: several analysts caution that a sudden surge in crude prices would hit consumers hard and muddle the inflation outlook—a tough combination for airlines and retailers.

With this week’s numbers in, investors are now eyeing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming policy meeting, set for March 16–17. That’s the next set point for fresh rate signals.

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